1
میز
GRS 700
CONFIDENTIAL
DENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG 23085OZ JUL 84
TO IMMEDIATE F C O
TELEGRAM NUMBER 2087 OF 23 JULY
INFO PRIORITY PEKING
FOR GALSWORTHY, HKD.
OUR TELNO. 1849 : FUTURE OF HONG KONG : FORTNIGHTLY REPORT ON
PUBLIC OPINION.
MR. LUCE'S VISIT AND THE ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE SECRETARY OF STATE IS TO COME HERE AGAIN, HAVE CAUSED MOUNTING SPECULATION THAT THE TALKS IN PEKING HAVE REACHED A CRITICAL STAGE.
2. AS A RESULT OF CHINESE LEAKS, THE HONG KONG MEDIA HAVE FOCUSSED ON THE POSSIBLE ESTABLISHMENT OF A JOINT LIAISON GROUP IN HONG KONG AS THE MAIN POINT CURRENTLY AT ISSUE. THE CHINESE HAVE PUT IT ABOUT THAT PEKING IS DETERMINED ON SUCH A GROUP, BUT THAT HONG KONG HAS NOTHING TO FEAR FROM IT. LI JUSHENG, A SENIOR NCNA OFFICIAL IN HONG KONG AND A MEMBER OF THE CHINESE NEGOTIATING TEAM, HAS SAID PUBLICLY THAT A JOINT LIAISON OFFICE WOULD BE NECESSARY AFTER AN AGREEMENT HAD BEEN SIGNED, BUT THAT IT WOULD NOT BE A WATCHDOG OR MONITORING BODY. LI'S REMARKS SEEM TO HAVE REASSURED SOME SECTIONS OF HONG KONG OPINION BUT THERE IS STILL STRONG DISTRUST OF CHINESE INTENTIONS AMONG KEY GROUPS.
3. THE SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST HAS ARGUED CONSISTENTLY THAT THE BRITISH SHOULD REJECT THE IDEA ON THE GROUNDS THAT ANY GROUP BASED IN HONG KONG WOULD INTERFERE WITH THE GOVERNMENT. MANY INDEPENDENT CHINESE LANGUAGE PAPERS HAVE, HOWEVER, CONCLUDED THAT A GROUP IN HONG KONG IS INEVITABLE, AND URGE SIMPLY THAT ITS TERMS OF REFERENCE SHOULD DE TIGHTLY DRAWN SO AS TO PREVENT IT INTERFERING WITH GOVERNMENT POLICIES. DISTRICT OFFICERS REPORT THAT MOST PEOPLE AT LOCAL LEVEL BELIEVE THAT A JOINT GROUP HERE WILL LEAD TO CHINESE INTERFERENCE AND HOPE THAT THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT WILL REJECT IT: BUT THAT SOME (MOSTLY YOUNGER PEOPLE) THINK A JOINT GROUP NEED NOT INTERFERE WITH ADMINISTRATION.
4. THE COMMERCIAL ATMOSPHERE DURING THE PAST FORTNIGHT HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY THE WEAKNESS OF THE HONG KONG DOLLAR, AND BY A FLUCTUATING STOCK MARKET. THE DOLLAR HAS FACED IS SEVEREST TEST SINCE IT WAS PEGGED TO THE US DOLLAR LAST SEPTEMBER, AND REMAINS UNDER SOME PRESSURE DESPITE A THREE AND A HALF PERCENT RISE IN INTEREST RATES. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE US DOLLAR IS CLEARLY A FACTOR IN THIS WEAKNESS, POLITICAL NERVOUSNESS IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE.
CONFIDENTIAL
/OPINION