GRS
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG 24084OZ AUG 84
TO IMMEDIATE F C O
TELEGRAM NUMBER 2493 OF 24 AUGUST
INFO PRIORITY PEKING
HKK040/35
Rect
23 AUG 1934
TOP
66247/9
OUR TELNO 2321: FUTURE OF HONG KONG: FORTNIGHTLY REPORT ON PUBLIC
OPINION.
PRESENT INDICATIONS OF THE PUBLIC MOOD ARE UNUSUALLY CONFLICTING. THE RELIEF WHICH INITIALLY GREETED THE SECRETARY OF STATE'S VISIT HAS BEEN DILUTED, BUT HAS NOT EVAPORATED. DISTRICT OFFICERS REPORT A GENERAL MOOD OF RESTRAINED OPTIMISM AND REALISM, WITH A NUMBER OF PEOPLE EXPRESSING CONCERN ABOUT HOW A SINO-BRITISH AGREEMENT WILL DEAL WITH LAND AND NATIONALITY QUESTIONS. SCEPTICISM INCREASES WITH WEALTH AND EDUCATION. VERY FEW PEOPLE NOW EXPECT A SUDDEN DETERIOR- ATION IN THE POLITICAL OR ECONOMIC SITUATION. ON THE OTHER HAND, A NUMBER OF PROFESSIONAL AND MIDDLE-CLASS HONG KONG CHINESE ARE SAYING PRIVATELY THAT THEIR CONFIDENCE DOES NOT EXTEND BEYOND ABOUT FWE YEARS.
2. A TELEPHONE OPINION POLL AT THE END OF JULY FOUND THAT 48 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS REGARDED THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG AS A PROBLEM, AND THAT FOR 39 PERCENT IT WAS THE PROBLEM OF GREATEST PERSONAL CONCERN: ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL LEVEL OF ANXIETY IS STILL HIGH, THIS REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGINFICANT DROP FROM THE PREVIOUS POLL AT THE END OF MAY WHEN THE EQUIVALENT FIGURES WERE 55 PERCENT AND 44 PERCENT. A SURVEY BY THE CHINESE MANUFACTURERS' ASSOCIATION CONDUCTED BETWEEN JUNE AND JULY SHOWED THAT 40 PERCENT OF EXECUTIVES WHO RESPONDED, AND 26 PERCENT OF TECHNOLOGISTS, HAD PLANS TO EMIGRATE: AND ABOUT 35 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS SAID THEY WOULD CEASE THEIR BUSINESS IN HONG KONG UNLESS THE AGREEMENT MET THEIR BASIC REQUIREMENTS (E.G. FOR INTERNATIONAL GUARANTEES). THE DIRECTOR OF MEDICAL AND HEALTH SERVICES HAS REPORTED THAT, WHILE MOST DOCTORS PLAN TO STAY IN HONG KONG AND MAKE THE BEST OF THINGS, MANY OTHERS ARE LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITIES TO EMIGRATE.
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3. THE MOOD OF CAUTIOUS REALISM AMONG PROFESSIONAL PEOPLE WAS WELL CAUGHT BY THE SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, WHICH REFLECTED IN A RECENT EDITORIAL THAT THE LIKELY SHAPE OF A SINO-BRITISH AGREEMENT LOOKED **BETTER THAN MOST PEOPLE EXPECTED EARLIER THIS YEAR'', AND WARNED THAT IF IT WERE REJECTED 'WE MIGHT WELL FIND THAT THE ALTERNATIVE OF A UNILATERAL CHINESE DECLARATION WOULD INVOLVE SACRIFICING SO
MUCH THAT WE WOULD BE IN A WORSE PLIGHT THAN EVER'' A NUMBER OF HONG KONG PAPERS ON 10 AUGUST CARRIED AN ADVERTISEMENT IN THE NAME OF 117 INDIVIDUALS, MOSTLY MIDDLE-CLASS PROFESSIONAL HONG KONG RESIDENTS. UNDER THE HEADING **WE ARE TAKING UP THE CHALLENGE'', THE ADVERTISEMENT EXPRESSED CONFIDENCE IN THE SINCERITY OF THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT, AND APPEALED TO THE PEOPLE OF HONG KONG TO FACE 1997 WITH A POSITIVE ATTITUDE. THE ADVERTISEMENT WAS WRITTEN BEFORE YOUR PRESS STATEMENT OF 1 AUGUST. ITS MOTIVE WAS CLEARLY TO ENCOURAGE AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE AT A TIME
WHEN SPIRITS WERE FLAGGING.
'CONFIDENTIAL
PUBLIC.
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