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ruled out on the same ground. Covert encouragement of such a poll might be possible. But the phrasing of questions would be extremely difficult and the Chinese would be likely to maintain
anyway that we were behind the move. Moreover in those
circumstances we would not be able to demonstrate that we had ourselves taken adequate steps to assess acceptability.
(c) an independent commission is almost equally problematical.
There could possibly be some pressure from Parliament for such an arrangement, but the Chinese would certainly regard any Pearce style commission as outside interference and seek to frustrate its work. The Pearce Commission is not an auspicious precedent and there was no pressure for one in the House of Commons debate. Such a commission would also be open to manipulation in Hong Kong by vociferous minority groups.
(d) a period of public debate in representative and
•
It would
semi-representative bodies in Hong Kong as well as at grass-roots level, stimulated by an invitation to the public to express their views on a draft agreement, would produce a reasonable reflection of public attitudes after the earlier phases of less structural and less informed debate, probably be less likely to provoke interference from the Chinese. The Chinese would however almost certainly still object on the grounds that it was not for the British to conduct any consultative process in Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, the UK and particularly in Parliament such a process might be open to criticism on the grounds that the present system in Hong Kong, however actively and carefully operated, is still not fully elective or fully democratic. But criticism on this score could probably be kept within acceptable bounds if the debate was conducted through a wide enough range of channels.
(e) a passive sounding of public opinion would be less provocative
to the Chinese but at the same time less credible as a means of gaining a clearer and authoritative picture of the views of the people of Hong Kong. It would be more difficult to demonstrate
to Parliament that we had fully consulted the people of Hong Kong and any assessment of public opinion would be more
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