X
PP WASHINGTON
GR 360
CONFIDENT-WAL
IMMEDIATE!
HKK 027/2 Pr.
RECEIVED IN REG STAY
-7 FEB 1984
FM PEKING 3108152 (JAN”gåsk OFFICER
INDEX
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
DVANCE SPY Polime Luce. Ps / Pus
Tre L. Craddock
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TELEGRAM NUMBER 166 OF 31ST JAN 84
INFO PRIORITY TOKYO, SEOUL, HONG KONG, WASHINGTON.
FOR FED.
YOUR TELNO 39 TO TOKOY (NOT TO WASHINGTON): WISHT BY SECRETARY OF STATE.
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1. AS YOU SAY, NO DECISION ABOUT WHETHER THE SECRETARY OF STATE SHOULD VISIT PEKING CAN YET BE TAKEN. IF THE HONG KONG FACTOR DID NOT EXIST, WOULD RECOMMEND THAT THE SECRETARY OF STATE SHOULD NOT SPEND A WEEK IN THE FAR EAST WITHOUT VISITING CHINA. BUT THE HONG KONG FACTOR DOES EXIST AND MUST LOOM VERY LARGE. MY PRELIMINARY VIEW IS THAT THIS FACTOR WOULD COUNT LESS AGAINST A VISIT TO PEKING OF THE TALKS WERE PROCEEDING SMOOTHLY THAN IF THEY WERE NOT. IF, IN THE EXTREME CASE, THEY WERE IN DANGER OF BREAKING DOWN IN APRIL, THERE WOULD BE A SPECIAL SITUATION AND A STRONG PRIMA FAC-PA CASE FOR A VISIT BY THE SECRETARY OF STATE ON HONG KONG GROUNDS ALONE.
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2. WE HAVE BEEN TOLD BY THE US EMBASSY (IN VERY STRICT CONFIDENCE: PLEASE PROTECT) THAT THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR PRESIDENT REAGAN'S VISIT US THAT HE WILL ARRIVE ABOUT 25/26 APRIL, LEAVE PEKING FOR SHANGHAI ABOUT 28 APRIL AND LEAVE CHINA FINALLY ABOUT 30 APRIL. SHULTZ WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE PRESIDENT AND IFT AS THEREFORE LIKELY THAT WU XUEDIAN WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRESIDENT TO SHANGHAÞ. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT WU WAS THED UP UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.
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3. ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE SECRETARY OF STATE COULD NOT VISIT CHINA BEFORE THE WEEK-END OF 21/22 APRIL, IT WOULD CLEARLY NOT BE FEASIBLE (OR DESIRABLE) FOR HIM TO COME UNTHL AFTER PRESIDENT REAGAN AND HHS PARTY HAD LEFT, AND N BELIEVE THAT THERE SHOULD THEREAFTER BE AN INTERVAL OF AT LEAST TWO DAYS, HF ONLY TO ALLOW THE CHINESE TO CATCH THEIR BREATH. NF THE DATES IN PARAGRAPH 2 ARE CONFIRMED, WHICH WE UNDERSTAND THAT THEY MAY BE BY ABOUT MID-FEBRUARY, THE EARLIEST POSSIBLE ARRIVAL DATE FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE WOULD THEREFORE BE 3 MAY.
4@ WE HEARD THIS MORNING FROM THE FRENCH PRESIDENCY THAT WU XUEQIAN MAY GO TO PARIS IN APRIL FOR A POLITICAL COOPERATION MEETING WITH CHEYSSON AND FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE PREVIOUS AND SUCCEEDING PRESIDENCIES, WE ASSUME THAT THIS WOULD BE EARLIER RATHER THAN LATER IN APRIL.
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