9R$ 600
SECRET
DESKBY 31100OZ FCO
DESKBY 31100OZ PEKING
SECRET
FM HONG KONG 310901Z MAY 84
TO IMMEDIATE PEKING
TELEGRAM NUMBER 437 OF 31 MAY
INFO IMMEDIATE FCO
th. Hoove
FOLLOWING FOR GOVERNOR FROM HADDON-CAVE
FCO TELNOS. 554 TO PEKING AND 958 AND 970 TO HONG KONG AND YOUR
TELNO. 91 TO ME
FUTURE OF HONG KONG: TEST OF ACCEPTABILITY
1. WE HAVE BEEN GIVING CAREFUL THOUGHT TO THE MATTERS RAISED IN TURS. WE HAVE PUT OUR PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS INTO A THINK PEICE. THE TEXT IS IN MIFT IN CASE YOU WISH TO DISCUSS IT WITH THE AMBASSADOR BEFORE YOU LEAVE.
2.
YOU MAY FIND THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL EXPLANATORY POINTS USEFUL:
A) THE THINK PIECE IS DRAFTED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE AGREEMENT WHOSE ACCEPTABILITY IS BEING TESTED IS ONE WHICH EXCO HAVE ENDORSED. THE VERY DIFFICULT QUESTION OF WHAT TO DO IF THE UNOFFICIAL MEMBERS OF EXCO DECLINE TO ASSOCIATE THEMSELVES WITH AN AGREEMENT WHICH HMG WISH TO SIGN CANNOT BE DEALT WITH IN A PAPER DISCUSSING THE MECHANICS OF TESTS OF ACCEPTABILITY, PARTICULARLY AS THE PAPER WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE TO BE CONVERTED INTO, OR ANNEXED TO, AN EXCO
MEMORANDUM.
B) I MUST, HOWEVER, TAKE GENERAL ISSUE WITH PARA 17 OF THE PAPER IN FCO TELNO. 554 TO PEKING AND PARTICULARLY THE ASSERTION THAT A THIS ''BREAK WITH UNOFFICIALS CAN BY NO MEANS BE RULED OUT". OVERLOOKS THE FACT THAT, WITHOUT A PROPERLY CONSTITUTED EXECUTIVE AS IT COUNCIL, THERE WOULD BE NO PROPER GOVERNMENT OF HONG KONG. IS UNLIKELY THAT THE UNOFFICIALS, IF OVERRULED, WOULD STAY, THEY WOULD HAVE TO BE REPLACED. BUT TO RECONSTITUTE EXCO WITH PEOPLE APPOINTED SPECIFICALLY TO ENDORSE AN AGREEMENT, IN THE NEGOTIATION OF WHICH THEY HAD PLAYED NO PART, WOULD DO MORE THAN MAKE VERY MUCH MORE DIFFICULT THE TASK OF CONVINCING HONG KONG OPINION THAT THE AGREEMENT WAS ACCEPTABLE. IT WOULD PROBABLY MAKE THE TASK IMPOSSIBLE. SOMEHOW, THEREFORE, WE MUST NOT LOSE THE PRESENT GROUP OF UNOFFIC-
TALS.
C) THE PAPER IN MIFT ATTEMPTS TO FACE UP TO THE FACT THAT, AT SONE STAGES OF THIS PROCESS, THE RISKS OF INCURRING CHINESE DISPLEASURE MAY WELL HAVE TO BE ACCEPTED. FOR EXAMPLE, IF THE PERIOD UP TO SEPTEMBER IS TO BE USED EFFECTIVELY TO CONDITION HONG KONG OPINION SO THAT THE DEBATE ON THE AGREEMENT DOES NOT GIVE RISE TO HANIFESTLY UNGSTAINABLE PROPOSALS, THEN WE MUST BE PREPARED TO RUN THE RISK OF INCURRING CHINESE DISPLEASURE BY SELECTIVE BREACHES OF CONFIDENT-
IALITY.
SECRET
/D)