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5 Additional UNHCR and US staff in Ho Chi Minh city have accelerated
the Orderly Departure Programmes. More left legally than ''illegally''
in August. But difficult to gauge how quickly flow of boat-people will
decline. Down by another 30-40% this year but there are still 500,000
ethnic Chinese in Cho Lon and many other potential refugees not
covered by ODP. Doctrinaire suppression of private business and
general economic stagnation may sustain the pressure to leave for many
years. A settlement over Cambodia might help economically but is
unlikely to change the nature of Vietnamese society.
This is
6 Hong Kong has about 13,500 refugees awaiting resettlement.
the highest boat refugee population in the region (29% of the regional
total). Current figure is 3,600 more than April 1982. 33% of Hong
Kong's refugees have been there more than 2 years.
7
Since July 1982 Hong Kong Government have confined all new arrivals
in closed camps, in an attempt to deter would-be refugees from setting
out from Vietnam. After a slow start, policy appears now to be having
some effect.
8 We understand from Hong Kong Government that US offtake from Hong Kong is set at 300 per month by State Department ''quota''. This figure is apparently based on the quota of Philippines visas available for the Refugee Processing Centre in Bataan. In practice, the US do
not always meet the quota: eg US offtake for October falls short of the quota by 100 because of shortage of INS interviewers. They are also worried that next year American attention will be diverted to Thailand
and the Khmer, leaving Hong Kong to Canadians and Australians. Hong Kong Government are particularly anxious to rid themselves of
''residual cases''. They would like resettlement countries to give
these priority over new arrivals.
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