}
CUNFIDENTIAL
-2-
lower level for the region may in part be due to tougher punishments for illegal departures in Vietnam. But
as far as Hong Kong is concerned arrivals this year
are clearly attracted by the hope of improving their living standards rather than fleeing from persecution.
They are no longer ethnic Chinese. They are ethnic
Vietnamese farmers and fishermen, no longer professional
and commercial people or former S.V. soldiers. They
do not speak either Chinese or English.
3.. The state of the Vietnamese economy and the
policies of the Vietnamese Government are such that the
incentive for people to move out of Vietnam for economic
reasons will continue to be significant. Thus this
present trend is likely to continue. Even if the
Vietnamese would like to stop it (and UNHCR say that they do), they find it difficult effectively to police
their coastline and to prevent corrupt connivance
at the local level.
DEPARTURES
4.
Departures from Hong Kong have meanwhile fallen
from 37,468 in 1980 and 17,818 in 1981 to 8,476 in 1982.
And the 1982 figure was artificially inflated by several
thousand at the start of this year as a result of an
American offtake of a large backlog from 1981. In
fact monthly resettlement this year has fallen steadily
from 1,838 in January to 186 in October.
CONFIDENTIAL