770 PER MONTH IN 1982. THE FIGURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO ONLY
250 PER MONTH IN 1983 -AS A RESULT OF THE REDUCTION IN THE US
AND CANADIAN QUOTAS. MONTHLY RESETTLEMENT IN 1982 FELL STEADILY
FROM 1,338 IN JANUARY TO 135 IN NOVEMBER. SINCE APRIL 1982, THE
USA HAS APPLIED TIGHTER IMMIGRATION CRITERIA FOR ADMISSION OF
INDO-CHINESE REFUGEES. THIS INCLUDES NOT ACCEPTING THOSE WHO DO
NOT MEET THE US DEFINITION OF REFUGEE. UNDER THE NEW CRITERIA,
ONLY REFUGEES (REPEAT REFUGEES) WHO HAVE CLOSE RELATIVES IN THE
USA OR WHO HAVE BEEN PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE US GOVERNMENT
WILL QUALIFY.
SINCE THE INTRODUCTION OF THESE NEW CRITERIA, THE OFFTAKE TO USA,
THE MAIN RESETTLEMENT COUNTRY FOR HONG KONG VIETNAMESE REFUGEES,
HAS BEEN REDUCED DRAMATICALLY FROM 1,498 IN JANUARY 1982 TO
139 IN DECEMBER. US OFFICIALS NOW ESTIMATE THAT THEY WILL IN
FUTURE ACCEPT LESS THAN 10 PER CENT OF ALL NEW ARRIVALS. THE
CANADIAN AND AUSTRALIANS ARE ALSO CUTTING BACK ON THEIR PROGRAMMES.
CANADA TOOK 2,000 IN 1981, 1000 IN 1982 AND PROJECTS ONLY 650
IN 1983.
HONG KONG' POSITION
HONG KONG CAN NOT (REPEAT NOT) ACCEPT VRS UNLESS THERE IS A
PROSPECT OF RESETTLEMENT, FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:
(A) HK IS ALREADY ONE OF THE MOST DENSELY POPULATED TERRITORIES
IN THE WORLD:
(B) HK HAS REDUCED ITS OWN NATURAL POPULATION GROWTH TO CLOSE
TO UNITY (1.2 PER CENT IN 1981) DESPITE HAVING A YOUNG POPULATION
AND THUS A LOW DEATH RATE AND (REPEAT AND) ONE OF THE LONGEST
EXPECTATIONS OF LIFE IN THE WORLD. BUT THE FIGURE IS BEING RAISED
TO OVER 2 PER CENT (2.3 PER CENT IN 1982 AND AS HIGH AS 6.4 PER CENT
IN 1979) BY NET MIGRATION BECAUSE OF THE TRADITIONAL (IF NOT AT
LEAST IMPLIED BY THE WORDING OF THE CONVENTION OF PEKING) QUOTE
OPEN FRONTIER UNQUOTE ARRANGEMENT WITH CHINA. THERE IS A TACITLY
AGREED LIMIT ON LEGAL ENTRANTS TO HK. HKG IS DISUCSSING WITH CHINA
MEASURES TO REDUCE THE NUMBERS OF TWO-WAY PERMIT HOLDERS THAT
DO NOT RETURN TO CHINA. BUT WE CAN NOT (REPEAT NOT) EXPECT ONE-
WAY LEGAL IMMIGRANTS TO FALL BELOW 27,000 A YEAR (EQUALS ABOUT
HALF NATURAL GROWTH RATE).
(C) WITH THE AGREEMENT OF CHINA WE ARE RETURNING ALL ILLEGAL
IMMIGRANTS (EXCEPT CHILDREN UNDER 14 AND WE ARE PLANNING TO ACT
AGAINST THESE AS WELL). THIS IS A BRUTAL POLICY IN TERMS OF
SPLITTING FAMILIES, SEPARATING CHILDREN FROM PARENTS AND EVEN
SPOUSES. IT INVOLVES CANTONESE TREATING CANTONESE FAR WORSE THAN
THEY TREAT VIETNAMESE.
(D) THE CHINESE IN HK HAVE LITTLE SYMPATHY WITH THE VIETNAMESE.
LOCAL CRITICISMS ON THE INCONSISTENT POLICIES ARE GROWING AND OUR
ANSWER IS THAT THE VRS ARE HERE TEMPORARILY PENDING RESETTLEMENT.
HOWEVER, THIS LINE IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN SINCE
37 PER CENT OF THOSE NOW IN HONG KONG HAVE BEEN HERE FOR MORE
THAN 2 YEARS AND THEIR RESETTLEMENT PROSPECTS ARE MINIMAL.
2.
CONFIDENTIAL
/OPTIONS
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