Transit Railway, public
construction will also
sector expenditure on
continue to increase.
building and
But on the
negative side private sector expenditure on building and construction is now expected to decline by 15% in real terms
in 1983. Given the decline in retained imports of capital
goods in the first half of this year and generally weak private sector investment intentions, the forecast growth rate of overall expenditure on plant, machinery and equipment in
addition must be revised downwards from 4% in real
in real terms to
zero. Taking gross domestic fixed capital formation as a whole, I must therefore make a substantial downward adjustment
to the forecast growth
growth rate in real terms from the budget
forecast of 6% to -18. The main reasons are too obvious to
merit comment.
21.
The net result of all the revisions to the forecast growth rates for the components of expenditure on the GDP, if indeed by good fortune they turn out to be correct, is to revise the forecast growth rate of the GDP in 1983 upwards to
This between 5 1/2% and 6%, from the budget forecast of 4%. represents my best estimate
the information now available.
would have been higher.
22.
our
economy on the basis of
In other circumstances it
an
With a forecast increase in the GDP deflator of 8%,
the revised forecast of expenditure on the GDP at current prices is about $180 billion. 1983 GDP at current prices is
now forecast to be about $34,000 a head, annual growth rate of 12% in money terms or 4% in real terms. Growth rates of this nature would clearly re-establish Hong
Kong's enviable record.
23.
representing
The implications of my revised GDP forecast are as
follows. Growth in 1983 will be export-led. As domestic
demand remains relatively
weak,
9
aggregate demand
/economy
in the