expenditure on the gross
domestic
increased, though all is not plain
product in 1983 can be
sailing. (Tables giving
full details of this revised GDP forecast are appended to the
printed version of this speech.)
18.
The substantial increase in retained imports of raw
materials and semi-manufactures in recent months, coupled with
the continued improvement in the order-book positions of
manufacturers, suggests that domestic export performance will remain strong for the rest of the year. Consequently domestic exports are now forecast to grow by 11% in real terms in 1983, as compared with my budget forecast of 5%. Because the growth rate of re-exports recovered less rapidly than expected in the first half, the forecast growth rate of re-exports in real terms is adjusted downwards to 9% from the budget forecast of 12%. Thus total exports are forecast to grow by 10% in real terms, as compared with the budget forecast of 7%. The budget forecast growth rate of imports in real terms of 7% is revised
upwards to 8%.
19.
The negative effect of the depressed property and
stock markets on wealth, the unfavourable influence of the
economic recession in 1982 on incomes and other factors have
constrained consumer spending. Nevertheless, statistics on retained imports of consumer goods suggest that consumer demand started to pick up in the second quarter of this year.
As the economy continues to improve, given no unforeseen external shocks I expect that private consumption expenditure
may recover further. For 1983 as a whole the forecast growth rate of private consumption expenditure in real terms is thus
revised slightly from 3% to 4%.
20.
So far, So good. Moreover largely due to the
continuation of the public works programme, the housing
programme and the construction of the Island Line of the Mass
8
/Transit