CODE 18-77
UNCLASSIFIED
ひ
1811
Morris
Mr Morris (HKGD K221)
Reference
FEC 090/1
Hll- chine Economic. ни
1.
You asked for comments on the Guardian article about China's hopes to quadruple its import and export volume by the end of the century.
2.
To achieve this target would require an average growth rate of 7.2% per year. In the last 20 years the average growth rate in the total output of industry and agriculture has been 6.1% which, if continued, would mean just over tripling by the end of the century and would make quadrupling a viable target. Although an overall growth rate of 6.4% was achieved in 1982, pundits are now claiming that 5% might be a more realistic growth rate until the latter half of the 1980s when offshore oil is expected to come on stream.
Five per cent growth from now to 1990 would require 10% growth from then to the end of the century. Even with offshore oil and modernisation of the coal mines, 10% growth a year seems an optimistic target. Perhaps the Chinese are reverting to the technique of setting unfulfillable targets to stimulate production.
Moghin
RE Coghlan
Hkkoaill
19 JAN 1983
CESK OFFICES INDEX
Far Eastern Department
18 January 1983
W82
233.5528
FA
19
Y MOLLA
Я натель
сду
GB 18/1
inth Gracia piece to Mital left, ES ID
1
It wacher, les Dept a p.a.
Bowl
181,