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Introduction
CHAPTER 1: OVERALL VIEW
1.1
Although a revised forecast
of the likely growth
rate in real terms of the gross domestic product in 1983 is
not yet available, the performance of the economy in the first
half of the year indicates that an export-led recovery is
already on its way and that the growth rate of the GDP for
1983 will show an improvement on last year, and possibly on
the budget estimate.
Exports and domestic demand
1.2
With the gradual revival in consumer
revival in consumer demand in Hong Kong's major markets, particularly the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany, domestic exports began to recover in the first quarter of this year. The recovery gathered momentum in the second quarter, so that,
that, comparing the first
half of 1983 with the first half of last year, the growth rate
reached an estimated 9% in real terms (paragraph 2.1). Helped
by trends in internal costs including property prices and
rentals (paragraph 6.9) and wages (paragraph 4.3)
which are
favourable
international
in
terms
of Hong Kong's
-
competitiveness, the export sector has again demonstrated its
ability to respond quickly to a revival in external market
demand. This is despite the increases in interest rates
during the second quarter (paragraph 3.10) and the higher import prices (paragraph 6.3) resulting from the depreciation
of the Hong Kong dollar (paragraph 3.14). Given that the growth rate in real terms of retained imports of raw materials
and semi-manufactures picked up rapidly in the second quarter
of this year (paragraph 2.12) and that the volume of orders
held by a selection of large manufacturers continued to improve (paragraph 5.3), it is likely that domestic export performance will remain strong in the coming months.
1
/1.3 Domestic