building and
But ΟΠ the
weak
Transit Railway, public sector expenditure on
construction wild also continue to increase.
negative side private sector expenditure on building and construction is now expected to decline by 15% in real terms in 1983. Given the decline in retained imports of capital goods in the first half of this year and generally private sector investment intentions, the forecast growth rate of overall expenditure on plant, machinery and equipment in
addition must be revised downwards · from 4% in real terms to
zero. Taking gross domestic fixed capital formation whole, I must therefore make a substantial downward adjustment
to the forecast
forecast growth rate in real terms from the budget forecast of 68 to -10. The main reasons are too obvious to
merit comment.
21.
The net result of all the revisions to the forecast
growth rates for the components of expenditure on the GDP, if indeed by good fortune they turn out to be correct, is to revise the forecast growth rate of the GDP in 1983 upwards to between 5 1/2% and 6%, from the budget forecast of 48. This
represents my best estimate for our economy on the basis of
the information now available. In other circumstances it
would have been higher.
22.
With a forecast increase in the GDP deflator of 8,
the revised forecast of expenditure on the GDP at current prices is about $180 billion. 1983 GDP at current prices is
now forecast to be about $34,000 a head, representing an annual growth rate of 12% in money terma or 40 in real terms. Growth rates of this nature would clearly re-establish Hong Kong's enviable record.
23.
follows.
demand
The implications of my revised GDP forecast are 45 Growth in 1983 will be export-led. As domestic
relatively weak, aggregate demand in the
remains
•
:
9
/economy