;
FURTHER GENERAL FIGHTING GREATLY INCREASED. THEY KNOW THAT WE WILL NOT BE PREPARED TO INCREASE OUR CONTINGENT IN THE MNF BUT, AS HABIB EMPHASIZED TO THE PUS, THEY REGARD OUR CONTINUED PARTICIPATION AS CRUCIAL.
SPAIN/GIBRALTAR
8. DURING HIS VISIT HERE EARLIER THIS MONTH, THE SPANISH FOREIGN MINISTER APPLIED SOME GENTLE BLACKMAIL OVER GIBRALTAR (MY TELNO 1760). THE SPANISH LINE WAS THAT THE OUTCOME OF THEIR REFERENDUM ON NATO MEMBERSHIP WAS LIKELY TO DEPEND ON PROGRESS WITH THEIR ACCESSION TO THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY AND OVER GIBRALTAR. SHULTZ'S OFFICE WERE FORE-WARNED THAT WE WOULD TAKE AMISS ANY US DISPOSITION ON THE PART OF THE AMERICANS TO GET THEMSELVES IN
THE MIDDLE OF THIS ISSUE AND SHULTZ WAS QUITE FIRM ON THIS POINT. BUT ONCE ENDERS GETS TO MADRID HE WILL NO DOUBT START LOOKING FOR SOLUTIONS AT OUR EXPENSE: AND THE US ADMINISTRATION MORE GENERALLY WILL HOPE THAT WE WILL BEAR FULLY IN MIND THE ADVANTAGES TO US ALL, INCLUDING THE GIBRALTARIANS, OF HELPING TO ANCHOR THE SPANIARDS FIRMLY WITHIN THE WESTERN COMMUNITY. YOU MAY WISH TO ASSURE SHULTZ THAT THIS IS OUR APPROACH. YOU WILL ALSO WISH TO REMIND HIM THAT IT IS THE SPANIARDS, NOT US, WHO HAVE FULLY TO IMPLEMENT THE LISBON AGREEMENT AND THAT, IF THEY WANT TO ADVANCE THEIR CASE WITH THE GIBRALTARIANS, THEY WOULD BE BETTER ADVISED TO TRY SEDUCTION THAN PRESSURE, WHICH CAN ONLY PRODUCE THE OPPOSITE EFFECT.
CENTRAL AMERICA
9. THIS REMAINS ONE OF SHULTZ'S WORST HEADACHES AND THE AREA IN WHICH HE IS LEAST EFFECTIVELY IN CONTROL OF US POLICY. SOME SYMPATHETIC UNDERSTANDING OF THE DIFFICULTIES WILL BE IN ORDER. MORE SPECIFICALLY, HOWEVER, THE TALKS WILL AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO TRY TO ADVANCE MATTERS IN RELATION TO BELIZE. WE HAVE IMPRESSED ON THE AMERICANS THAT IT IS OUR INTENTION TO WITHDRAW THE GARRISON IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THEY ARE NOW BEGINNING TO LOOK AT POSSIBLE US FINANCING FOR A TRAINING FACILITY WHICH, WHILE OF NO MILITARY DETERRENT VALUE, COULD HAVE SOME USEFUL POLITICAL DETERRENT EFFECT ON THE GUATEMALANS (MY TELNOS 1781 AND 1797) WE SHOULD TRY TO USE THE TALKS IN LONDON, TO BE FOLLOWED UP IN YOUR DISCUSSIONS HERE, TO ENCOURAGE THE AMERICANS TO DEVELOP THESE IDEAS QUICKLY: AND TO ASSIST ALSO IN A FURTHER ATTEMPT TO FIND A FACE-SAVING FORMULA WHICH WOULD ENABLE BELIZE AND GUATEMALA TO BURY THEIR DISPUTE. THE DIFFICULTIES OF DEALING WITH A GUATEMALAN GOVERNMENT LIABLE TO BE OVERTHROWN AT ANY MOMENT ARE OBVIOUS.
THIS IS A COPY
THE ORIGINAL HAS BEEN CONFIDENTIAL
CLOSED FOR
40 YEARS UNDER FOI EXEMPTION NO....2760), 40(2)
/FALKLANDS
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