4. YOUR TALKS WILL BE TAKING PLACE WHILE KOHL IS EN ROUTE TO
MOSCOW. THE AMERICNAS ARE CONFIDENT THAT HE WILL RESIST SCHMIDT'S
INCLINATION TO SEEK TO ACT AS AN QUOTE INTERPRETER UNQUOTE BETWEEN
THEM AND THE RUSSIANS. BUT THE DEMONSTRATIONS DURING BUSH'S
VISIT TO GERMANY AT THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE SERVED AS A REMINDER
OF THE PROBLEMS KOHL IS LIKELY TO FACE LATER IN THE YEAR. THEY
ARE CONSCIOUS THAT HE MAY NEED SOME FURTHER HELP AS THE MOMENT
OF DEPLOYMENT APPROACHES, AND WILL BE MUCH CONCERNED AT ANY
SIGNS OF WOBBLINESS IN BONN (MY TELNO 1780)..
5. THE AMERICANS HAVE BEEN PROBING THE SOVIET POSITION IN START
AND MSFR. OUR SUPPORT FOR THE SPANISH INITIATIVE HAS WRONG-
FOOTED THE RUSSIANS IN THE CSCE/CDE. YOU MAY WISH TO ASK
SHULTZ HOW HE NOW RATES THE CHANCES OF MOVING ON TO A CDE EARLY
NEXT YEAR: AND WHAT TACTICS HE PROPOSES IF THE RUSSIANS CONTINUE
TO PREVARICATE IN MADRID. THE THOUGHT I WOULD HOPE YOU WOULD
INTERJECT IS THE IMMENSE IMPORTANCE OF THE EFFECTIVE PRESENTATION
OF OUR ARMS CONTROL POLICIES AND THE TONE OF PRONOUNCEMENTS FROM
WASHINGTON IN THE PERIOD AHEAD. THERE WILL BE A NEED TO BRING
TOGETHER IN THE AUTUMN THE VARIOUS PROPOSALS THAT HAVE NOW BEEN
MADE AND COMBINE THEM IN A GENERAL PRESENTATION OF THE ALLIANCE 'S
POLICIES AND SERIOUSNESS IN NEGOTIATION.
POLAND
6. YOU WILL WANT TO HAVE A WORD WITH SHULTZ ABOUT POLAND IN THE
AFTERMATH OF THE POPE'S VISIT. THE STATE DEPARTMENT ARE LOOKING FOR
WAYS TO EDGE TOWARDS THE LIFTING OF SOME SANCTIONS AGAINST THE
POLES (THE RESUMPTION OF RE-SCHEDULING TALKS AND THE RESTORATION
OF FISHING RIGHTS). THE ADMINISTRATION ARE LINKING THIS TO HOPES
OF SOME FURTHER SIGN OF RELATIVE LIBERALISATION (THE LIFTING
OF MARTIAL LAW AND/OR THE RELEASE OF MORE PRISONERS ON THE
OCCASION OF THE POLISH NATIONAL DAY).
MIDDLE EAST
7. THE AMERICANS CONSIDER THAT THE ARABS MISSED THE BUS SO FAR
AS ANY HOPE OF GETTING PROGRESS ON THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE IS
CONCERNED WHEN THE PLO REFUSED TO SUPPORT KING HUSSEIN IN PEACE
NEGOTIATIONS. THE SITUATION IN WHICH THE PLO NOW FIND THEMSELVES
VIS-A-VIS THE SYRIANS WILL MAKE PROGRESS ON THAT FRONT MORE
DIFFICULT THAT EVER. SO THE AMERICANS ARE CONCENTRATING THEIR
EFFORTS ON LEBANON. THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO GET MORE SAUDI
PRESSURE ON THE SYRIANS TO WITHDRAW, OR, AT LEAST TO OPEN
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE LEBANESE. THEY ARE CONSCIOUS OF THE DANGERS
OF ANOTHER MAJOR ISRAELI/SYRIAN CLASH IF THE FORCES REMAIN IN
THEIR PRESENT POSITIONS. IF THEY CANNOT GET PROGRESS ON SYRIAN
WITHDRAWAL, THEY REGARD PARTIAL ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL AS WELL-NIGH
INEVITABLE. THEIR CONCERN WILL BE TO ENSURE THAT THE LEBANESE
ARMED FORCES ARE ABLE TO FILL THE GAP AND THAT THE MNF HELPS
THEM DO SO: OTHERWISE WHAT GAINS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED FOR LEBANON
SINCE THE MNF WAS INTRODUCED WILL BE LOST AND THE DANGERS OF
2
CONFIDENTIAL
/FURTHER