16. IT SEEMS CLEAR TO ME THAT IN THIS POST-DETENTE PERIOD WHEN ITS RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES ARE BECOMING
CNUCLEAR KIND-
ENUOUS AND FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTIES OR EVEN GRAVE RISKS OF PHYSICAL CONFLICT - WHETHER OF THE CONVENTIONAL OR NUCLEAR KIND - THE SOVIET UNION IS ANXIOUS TO TAKE OUT SOME INSURANCE IN THE FORM OF CHINESE NEUTRALITY. IT IS MY BELIEF THAT FOR REASONS BEST KNOWN TO THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP, LEAST OF WHICH IS THE POLICY OF CAUTION ADOPTED BY THAT LEADERSHIP VIS-A-VIS CHALLENGES OUTSIDE OF THE SOVIET BLOC, THE SOVIET UNION IS APPREHENSIVE OF THE DEVELOPING CONFRONTATION WITH THE UNITED STATES. INDEED, IS IS MY READING THAT IT IS NOT READY FOR SUCH A COLLISION COURSE AND HENCE THE FRENETIC DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY MOUNTED BY MOSCOW TO TRY TO BRING ABOUT A CLOSING OF RANKS AMONG THE SOCIALIST STATES OF THE WORLD, INCLUDING CHINA, YUGOSLAVIA, ROMANIA AND ALBANIA.
17. CHINA, WITHOUT DOUBT, MUST BE AWARE OF THE ATTENTIONS BEING PAID TO IT BY THE TWO SUPER POWERS AND WITH
CHARACTERISTIC SHREWDNESS FINDS IN THE SITUATION AN APPORTUNITY TO EXPLOIT IT TO ITS ADVANTAGE: AN OPPORTUNITY NOT LIKELY TO BE GIVEN UP GIVEN ITS CURRENT QUEST FOR THE
FOUR MODERNISATIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
18. BUT IN WHAT WAY OR WAYS DO THE DYNAMICS OF GREAT POWER POLITICS IMPINGE OR IMPACT ON OUR OWN REGION OF SOUTHEAST ASIA? AND HOW SHOULD WE IN THIS REGION RESPOND TO THE
DE VELOPMENTS BEING WROUGHT AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL, IN THE INTEREST OF REGIONAL PEACE AND STABILITY ? I PROPOSE TO EXAMINE THESE AND RELATED QUESTIONS FORTHWITH .
19. I NEED HARDLY EMPHASISE THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN REGION IN GREAT POWER POLITICS, A POINT THAT HAS BEEN BELABOURED BY ANALYSTS AND COMMENTATORS OF THE SOUTHEAST AISAN POLITICAL SCENE AND ONE THAT YOU AS MILITARY OFFICERS MUST CERTAINLY BE MOST APPRECIATIVE OF. I SHALL THEREFORE NOT ENUMERATE THE FACTORS THAT TOGETHER CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING THIS REGION AN AREA OF GREAT IMPORTANCE TO THE GREAT POWERS. SUFFICE FOR ME TO SAY THAT THE IMPORTANCE OF SOUTHEAST ASIA TO POWERS EXTERNAL TO THE REGION HAS ATTRACTED INTERVENTION IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER IN THE AFFAIRS OF THE REGIONAL STATES RIGHT UP TO THIS DAY.
20.
DEALING WITH THE SUPER POWER FIRST, SOUTHEAST ASIA BY VIRTUE OF ITS STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE HAS ATTRACTED THE INTERVENTION OF BOTH THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION. BOTH WERE INVOLVED IN THE FIRST AND SECOND INDONCHINA WARS AND ONE OF THEM, THE SOVIET UNION, FINDS ITSELF EMBROILED IN THE CURRENT CONFLICT IN KAMPUCHEA IN SUPPORT OF THE VIETNAMESE. THE UNITED STATES, HAVING HAD ITS FINGERS BURNT DURING ITS LAST INTERVENTION HAS THUS FAR COYLY STAYED AWAY FROM THE CURRENT CONFLICT.