13.
MOSCOW, FOR ITS PART, IS EQUALLY COGNIZANT OF THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF CHINA BUT HAD LOST THE INITIATIVE TO THE UNITED STATES ON ACCOUNT OF THE LONG-STANDING
ED BETWEEN THE MOSCOW AND BEIJING, WHICH HAS BEEN FURTHER EXACERBATED BY SOVIET UNION'S INVASION OF AFGHANISTAN AND ITS SUPPORT FOR VIETNAM'S INVASION AND CONTINUED OCCUPATION OF KAMPUCHEA. HOWEVER, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO MOSCOW'S INTEREST TO MEND FENCES WITH ITS ERSTWHILE ALLY AND HAS BEEN KEEN IN KEEPING THE NEGOTIATIONS ON THE NARMALISATIONS OF RELATIONS GOING. WHILE CHINA HAS CONTINUED TO INSIST ON THE REMOVAL OF THE MAIN STUMBLING BLOCKS IN THE NORMALISATION OF RELATIONS VIZ SOVIET ASSISTANCE TO VIETNAM IN RESPECT OF KAMPUCHEA, AND THE PRESENCE OF SOVIET FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN AND ALONG THE SINO-SOVIET BORDER, THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN THESE TALKS, SUCH AS, FOR INSTANCE, RECENT AGREEMENT ON THE REVIVAL OF STUDENT AND CULTURAL EXCHANGES AND WIEDEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEENT ON THE BE STUDENTE AND CULTURAL EXCHANGES AND WIDER ECONOMIC INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. AT THE SAME TIME FURTHER POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS MAY BE DISCERNED. FIRSTLY THERE IS THE SUBTLE BUT QUITE CLEAR SHIFTS IN THE NEGOTIATING STANCES OF THE CHINESE AND SOVIETS IN THEIR LATEST ROUNDS OF TALKS. FOR INSTANCE, NO LONGER ARE THE CHINESE PUTTING EQUAL EMPHASIS ON ALL OF THE PRECONDITIONS FOR THE NORMALISATION OF RELATIONS WITH MOSCOW. BEIJING'S NEW EMPHASIS NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE SUSPENSION OF SOVIET AID TO VIETNAM IN SUPPORT OF ITS KAMPUCHE AN ADVENTURE. THIS IS A SUBTLE BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CHINESE STANCE AND CAN BE READ BY ASE AN AS A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT.
1.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SOVIET UNION, WHICH IS ANXIOUS FOR AN IMPROVEMENT OF RELATIONS WITH THE CHINESE, HAS MADE APPROPRIATE RESPONSES TO THE CHINESE. THE LATEST INDICATION OF THE SOVIET POSITION COULD BE. GLEANED FROM THE NUANCES
OF THE SOVIET IN THE STATEMENTS OF GEIDER ALIYEV, A MEMBER POLITBURO, DURING HIS RECENT VISIT TO HANOI. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SOVIET UNION IS NOW DETACHING ITSELF COMPLETELY FROM VIETNAM'S RHETORICS, A PROCESS FIRST EVIDENT ABOUT A YEAR AGO: LE DUAN'S CASTIGATION OF CHINA'S COLLUSION WITH THE US WAS COMPLETELY IGNORED BY ALIYEV IN HIS SPEECH.
15.
IT IS OBVIOUS TO ME THAT THE SOVIET UNION IS ANXIOUS TO REPAIR ITS RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND ARE THEREFORE PREPARED TO ACCOMMODATE SOME OF CHINA'S CONDITIONS. ALIYEV'S VISIT TO HANOI PROVIDED THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SOVIETS TO SEND OUT THE KIND OF SIGNALS TO BE READ AND INTERPRETED BY BOTH CHINA AND VIETNAM. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN READ AND INTERPRETED BY BOTH OF THEM. INDEED, RELIABLE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE CHANGES AFOOT IN VIETNAM AND KAMPUCHEA THAT MAY LEAD TO EVEN MORE POSITIVE DE VELOPMENTS IN RESPECT OF THE KAMPUCHEAN SITUATION
ON THE BASIS OF THESE REPORTS I FOR ONE WILL NOT BE. SURPRISED TO HEAR IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE CHANGES WITHIN THE PUPPET GOVERNMENT IN PHNOM PENH AND IN THE GOVERNMENTAL HIERARCHY IN HANOI.