9.

IN CONTRAST TO THE BEHAVIOUR OF PREVIOUS AMERICAN ADMINISTRATIONS PARTICULARLY THE CAUTIOUS AND UNCERTAIN CARTER PRESIDENCY THE CURRENT ADMINISTRARION UNDER PRESIDENT REAGAN IS PERCEIVED BY MOSCOW AS BOLD ND DECISIVE EVEN, HAWKISH AND AGGRESSIVE - ONE THAT DOES NOT CRINGE FROM INTERVENING IN THE AFFAIRS OF OTHER STATES IN PURSUIT OF ITS NATIONAL OBJECTIVE. THE HAWKISHNESS THAT IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION IS DUE IN NO SMALL MEASURE TO THE TOUGH RHETORIC EMANATING OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE MATCHED BY THE ADMINISTRATION'S EQUALLY ROBUST ACTIONS IN SUPPORT OF ITS POLICY POSITIONS SUCH AS IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARRIBEAN AND IN WEST ASIA, WHERE THE UNITED STATES IS SEEN TO BE THREATENING SYRIA IN THE UNFOLDING TRAGEDY IN LEBANON, AS WELL AS THE TOUGH STANCE TAKEN BY THE U.S. IN THE NEGOTIATIONS ON STRATEGIC WEAPONS. PERHAPS, THE APPOINTMENT OF ALEXANDER HAIG A FORMER COMMANDING GENERAL OF NATO AND A MILITARY OFFICER WITH VERY DEFINITE VIEWS ON THE NEED FOR WESTERN MILITARY SUPERIORITY VIS-A-VIS THE SOVIETS - AS PRESIDENT REAGAN'S FIRST SECRSOKRY OF STATE HAD DRIVEN HOME THE POINT TO MOSCOW ABOUT THE NO-NONSENSE APPROACH OF PRESIDENT REAGAN IN THE U.S. DE AL INGS WITH THE SOVIET UNION. WHILE THE STEWARDSHIP OF AMERICAN DIPLOMA CY HAS NOW BEEN PLACED IN THE HANDS OF THE MORE AFF ABLE GEORGE SHULTZ THIS, IT APPEARS, HAS NOT CAUSED THE SOVIETS TO ALTER THEIR PERCEPTION OF WASHINGTON FOR THE SIMPLE REASON THAT EVEN THE AVANCUL AR MR. SHULTZ WILL HAVE TO SING IN HIS MASTER'S VOICE.

10. I HAVE DWELT IN QUITE SOME DETAIL ON THE TURNS AND SHIFTS OF U.S. - SOVIET RELATIONS BECAUSE IN MY VIEW MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN OUR CONTEMPORARY WORLD STILL REVOL VE AROUND THE RIVALRY AND COMPETITION BETWEEN THE TWO SUPER POWERS DESPITE THE EMERGING TRE AND TOWARDS MULTIPOLARITY.

11.

IT

IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS RIVALRY THE POSITION. OF CHINA IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING PIVOTAL. IT IS TRUE THAT MEASURED IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND WEALTH OF EITHER OF THE SUPER POWERS CHINA IS NO SUPER POWER. IS A POOR DEVELOPING COUNTRY, WITH MODEST NUCLEAR CAPABILITY BUT ONE WHICH BY SHEER DINT OF SIZE AND POPULATION AND SHREWD DIPLOMACY, HAS BEEN MAKING AN IMPACT IN GLOBAL POLITICS PARTICULARLY IN THIS PART OF THE GLOBE. THE INCREASING IMPORTANCE OF CHINA AS AN ACTOR IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS HAS BEEN WATCHED BY BOTH MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON WITH GREAT INTEREST AND NOT. A LITTLE TREPIDATION FOR IN A WORLD IN WHICH THERE IS NUCLEAR PARITY BETWEEN THE TWO SUPER POWERS THE POSITION OF CHINA IN THE CALCULUS OF POWER ASSUMES EVER-INCREASING IF NOT CRUCIAL IMPORTANCE TO BOTH THE SUPER POWERS.

12.

THE IMPORTANCE OF CHINA IN THE STRATEGIC EQUATION WAS DRAMATICALLY DRIVEN HOME TO THE SOVIETS WHEN WASHINGTON BEGAN TALING IN TERMS OF FORGING A S'STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIPU WITH BEIJING AND STARTED WOOING THE CHINESE WITH INFREASING ARDOUR FOLLOWING THE FULL NORMAL ISATION OF US-CHINA RELATIONS. WHILE THE BILATERAL RELATIONS AND HAD IN FACT CONTRIBUTED TO A CHILL IN REALTIONS DURING THE EARLY PART OF PRESIDENT REAGAN'S ADMINISTRATION WASHINGTON HAS SPARED NO EFFORT IN TRYING TO BRING A CONVERGENCE OF VIEWS AND STRATEGIC PERCEPTIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA.

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