CONFIDENTIAL
H of C
Reference..
of the
in habi-
tants
DE 18-77
HP 4/83
CALL ON MR HARA, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, CHINA DIVISION, MFA
1.
I accompanied Mr Walker of Research Department on a call on Hara, Deputy Director of the China Division. The following points came up.
2. Hara began with a description of Japanese policy on Hong Kong. He said that Japan had extensive economic interests in Hong Kong and hoped that the two parties to the negotiations on it's future could maintain its stability and prosperity. Japanese business was still taking a positive attitude, but Japanese investment in Hong Kong was generally not of a long term nature; it comprised offices and sales networks rather than factories. They had taken heed of Sir J Bullard's state- ments at his talks with Mr Nakajima to the effect that they should not take Chinese public statements at face value. They had also noted, and were following, his request that they encourage Japanese investors to stay in Hong Kong. Some Japanese were now interested in the Hong Kong property market, on the assumption that it had reached the bottom of its slump and would soon start to rise.
3
Hara added that he had noted, during his recent posting in London, one consistent line in British policy on Hong Kong, the Falklands and Gibraltar, which was that in negotiating with others on their future, the British Government would respect the wishes/. He wondered whether this might become a block to an agreement with China on Hong Kong; he could see no prospect of the Chinese convincing the people of Hong Kong of their intentions for Hong Kong's future. Mr Walker cautioned against drawing parallels between the Falklands, Hong Kong and Gibraltar.
4.
Mr Walker asked if the Japanese had detected any change in the atmosphere between Taiwan and China. There had been some speculation, for example, after the meeting between Deng Xiaoping and the business- man Winston Tan. Hara said they had no evidence to suggest a more flexible line from Taiwan. Although Taiwan's leadership was likely to change soon, they did not expect this to be accompanied by a change of policy towards China. Japan was not involved in any way as an inter- mediary between the two.
5. Mr Walker asked about Hu Yaobang's visit. Hara said he would be accompanied by the Foreign Minister and representatives of the Chinese Communist Party. He would visit Hokkaido, Kyushu and Osaka, and would address the Diet if this was in session. He would go to the Atom Bomb Memorial in Nagasaki. The two main themes for the visit would be the prospects for Japan-China relations into the 21st century, and the possibilities for closer economic co-operation between the two countries
6. Mr Walker asked whether the visit would help Hu Yaobang domestical- ly. Hara was doubtful. This would be his first visit to a western country, and he might hope it would build up his prestige. But it would be his success in streamlining and modernising the party that would really determine his reputation.
7. Hara added that they would discuss with Hu the security situation in the Far East, particularly the problem of SS20s in Siberia. But the did not expect to get far with him. He was not really a strategic thinker.
cc Research Dept 30
Chancery, Peking
This Donochr
N K Darroch
31 October 1983