CONFIDENTIAL
Asai thought that the best guarantee of any arrangement reached for Hong Kong would be the Chinese need to show Taiwan that all was working well- this would be more effective than anything in writing. In general Asai thought that the Chinese would keep their promises for fear of sabotaging their open-door policy if they did not, and that within their own fundamental principles the Chinese had a good deal of room for flexibility. By way of comment on negotiating techniques with the Chinese the Minister at the Japanese Embassy in Moscow, Mr Owada (formerly Private Secretary to the Japanese Prime Minister) said that the Japanese proposal which had finally broken the back of the Sino/Japanese treaty negotiations in 1978 had involved the least concession by the Japanese of four possible options, but the Chinese had jumped at it because it was new and not a re-hash of a proposals which they had already rejected.
5. In general I found the Japanese very willing to talk about China with specific reference to Hong Kong without asking any embarrassing questions. Asai confirmed that Japanese businessmen had responded well to government encouragement to maintain their investment and confidence in Hong Kong (although subsequent reports throw some doubts on this). There is clearly a case for continuing to tap Japanese knowledge of China and perhaps for giving them a little more background on the Hong Kong negotiations.
Mark hist
1 November 1983
M Elliott
Far Eastern Department