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CONFIDENTIAL
Residence when she will make a major speech.
The Prime
Minister leaves Washington on the morning of 30 September
[for New York/London].
2. By the time the Prime Minister arrives in Washington,
5
Preident Reagan may well have made up his mind whether to
stand for re-election in 1984, though for tactical
reasons he may make no announcement for a further few
weeks. The balance of probability is that he will run
again in spite of his age and the prospect that in 1984
the Senate may follow the House of Representatives in
falling to the Democrats. Mr Reagan is the only
Republican candidate who stands a reasonable chance of
success against the main Democrat contenders (Mr Mondale
and Senator Glenn).
3.
The President's personal popularity is higher now
than at the beginning of the year, partly as a
consequence of a significant improvement in the economy.
More recently he has gained widespread approval for his
handling of the KAL airliner incident although he is
having to weather considerable pressure led by the right
wing of the Republic party for further action against the
Soviet Union. The same circles have also found fault
with his attempts to win bipartisan support for his
policies on defence and disarmament questions and on
Central America.
4. Recently much has been made by the media of
divisions within the Administration on the handling of
foreign affairs and there have been suggestions that the
Judgɛ President's National Security Adviser, Joe Clark, may be
seeking to usurp the authority of Mr Shultz.
CONFIDENTIAL
Although