4
FRIDAY, MAY 20, 1983
JB:
HE:
BUT IF THERE WERE A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT?
WELL, I THINK THAT THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT ANY GOVERNMENT IN UK WOULD NOT HAVE THE SAME OBJECTIVE AS I HAVE JUST STATED.
J3: YOU HAVE SAID THAT YOU WILL GO TO PEKING YOURSELF TO JOIN IN THE TALKS WHEN THE TIME IS APPROPRIATE: HAVE YOU ANY IDEA WHEN THAT TIME IS GOING TO COME? I MEAN, WHEN ARE WE GOING TO SEE AN APPROPRIATE TIME FOR DEFINITIVE DISCUSSIONS?
HE: WELL, I DON'T THINK THAT YOU LINK ME WITH A PARTICULAR FORM OF SUBSTANCE OF THE DISCUSSIONS. * THINK AGAIN - KEEP IN MIND AS I SAID I THINK, A LITTLE WHILE BACK, THERE IS IN PEKING AN ANBASSADOR, SIR PERCY CRADOCK WHO IS A VERY EXPERIENCED MAN IN THESE MATTERS. HE KNOWS HONG KONG HELL, HE HAS BEEN TO HONG KONG. HE CAME DOWN YOU MAY RECALL WITH THE PRIME MINISTER. HE CAME DONN WITH LORD BELSTEAD AND HE CAME THROUGH WITH ME THE OTHER DAY. HE IS IN VERY CLOSE TOUCH WITH US AND I AM ALWAYS IN VERY CLOSE TOUCH WITH HIM. SO THERE IS THERE ALREADY AN EXPERIENCED NEGOTIATOR, AND AS TO WHEN I WILL GO I CAN'T GIVE YOU AN EXACT DATE BUT ANY IDEA THAT I AM NOT GOING I THIN YOU CAN DISKISS I KNOW THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF STORIES AROUND AFOUT WHETHER 1 SHALL BE ACCEPTABLE OR UNACCEPTABLE. I KNOW OF NO SUBSTANCE FOR THOSE STORIES AND YOU MAY TAKE IT THAT THE TIME WILL COME WHEN YOU WILL SEE ME IN PEKING.
JBI SO, IT COULD BE THIS YEAR?
NET ON INDEED, YES.
JB1
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT, YOU HAVE BLAMED THE DRASTIC FALL IN THE HONG KONG DOLLAR ON THE STRENGTH OF THE AMERICAN DOLLAR: BON'T YOU THINK THAT 1997 HAS A GREAT DEAL TO DO WITH THIS - THE UNCERTAINTY AND UNERSE AMONG PEOPLE?
HEI WELL. THE HONG KONG DOLLAR IS A FUNCTION BASICALLY, OF THE MARKET. THIS IS A FREE AND OPEN MARKET WHERE PEOPLE CAN MOVE INTO CURRENCIES AND OUT OF CURRENCIES, AND THE RATE OF EXCHANGE IS AFFECTED BY SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND OBVIOUSLY, THE SUPPLY OVER RECENT BAYS OR HEEKS HAS BEEN GREATER THAN THE DEMAND, AND WITH THAT THE EFFECT OF THE DOLLAR HAS WEAKENED. BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS ON THIS, AND I AM NOT GOING TO TRY TO IDENTIFY THE HEIGHT OF EACH INDIVIDUAL FRCTOR IN THAT CALCULATION, BEC JSE I THINK IT WOULD BE FOOLISH TO DO SO. SOME OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE TEMPORARY BUT WHAT I WOULD SAY IS THIS, THAT I BELIEVE THAT THERE IS AN UNDERLYING STRENGTH IN THE HONG KONG ECONOMY, THAT THAT STRENGTH IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THROUGH AND PROVIDING EVERYBODY IS SENSIBLE, I SEE NO REASON WHY IT SHOULD NOT IMPROVE THE EXCHANGE RATE. AFTER ALL, THE MAIN DETERMINANT 13 THE MARKET BUT THE GOVERNMENT IS IN CLOSE AND CONSTANT TOUCH WITH THE MIN INSTITUTIONS IN THE MARKET, AND I SAY IF PEOPLE ACT IN A GOOD AND SENSIBLE MANNER, I THINK THERE IS NO REASON FOR TEM TO GET UNDULY PESSIMISTIC.
JBI BUT DESPITE UNDERPINNING BY THE GOVERNMENT, THE RATE HPS FALLEN BELON 87 SO THINGS ARE FAIRLY SERIOUS FOR THE DOLLAR
/HE: WELL,