CRS-15
III. CHINA'S POLICY
According to a viewpoint prevalent among some leading observers inter-
ested in Hong Kong's future, China now appears likely to sustain these basic condi-
tions and succeed in fostering a smooth transition for Hong Kong under formal
This is concluded because China would otherwise jeopardize
PRC sovereignty.
However, a more skeptical view holds
the reported important interest the PRC has in the continued economic pros-
perity and stability of the territory.
that China's leaders may be prone to interfere more directly in the adminis-
tration of the territory, in part because they may judge that China can
effectively manage the complex social-economic system there, or because they
may judge that it is in PRC interests to exert more direct control, regard-
less of how it might disrupt prevailing order in Hong Kong. Skeptics tend to
believe that a more assertive Chinese policy toward Hong Kong could relatively
quickly weaken the fragile underpinnings of the territory's prosperity and
stability.
At present, it is far from clear what kind of approach Beijing will fol-
low toward Hong Kong. Chinese policy pronouncements have been vague. PRC
policy may have been disrupted by the sudden death in June 1983 of Liao Chengzhi,
who for years had been the senior Chinese leader responsible for Hong Kong
matters, although Liao's passing did not disrupt the start of the second
round of Sino-British talks in July.