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CONFIDENTIAL
INDO-BRITISH POLITICAL TALKS: 3-4 FEBRUARY 1983
BRIEF NO 5: CHINA (AND HONG KONG)
нако
14 FFR 1983
POINTS TO MAKE
China Internal
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1. Deng and his group did well in 1982 in laying down foundations
of future stable collective leadership committed to continuing
current policies. Some problems remain (eg in armed forces)
but Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang are gradually establishing
their authority.
policies.
Much may depend on economic results of current
UK/China
2. Relations good. Prime Minister's visit (September 1982)
the culmination of series of high-level exchanges.
India/China
3.
What progress at latest round of talks? Prospects? Do
Chinese seem sincere about wanting to improve relations?
Any
sign of willingness to compromise?
Soviet Union/China
4. Pace of Sino/Soviet development of relations has slowed
since flurry in October/November. Chinese have deferred next
round of consultations until March, after Shultz's visit. No
signs of substantial Soviet concessions insisted upon by Chinese.
Chinese expect talks to be a marathon. No sudden breakthrough likely. Formidable obstacles - Cambodia, Afghanistan, troops
on frontier and disputed territory.
Hong Kong (defensive)
5 a.
Prime Minister reached agreement with Chinese leaders in Peking in September to enter talks through diplomatic
channels with the common aim of maintaining the stability
CONFIDENTIAL