Ķ. B. Bucknall 119
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13. The Civil War Accident
A minor civil war occurs in China and the ultimate losers are based in the south. Perhaps Guangdong and Fujian develop rapidly and political power increases as the economic base becomes stronger. The classical Chinese centrifugal force of peripheral politics emerges with a movement towards an independent king- dom splitting off from the rest of China. An alternative version might be an invasion from Taiwan, perhaps backed and assisted by another country that has made temporary alliance, such as Japan or Vietnam. The invasion fails and the invading forces are pushed south. As the successful northern armies sweep victoriously down they continue their advance into Hong Kong, which is taken over almost as an accidental byproduct of the civil war.
14. Polishing Up the PLA for Defense
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is poor, unbattle-trained and in need of action in order to render it into a decent fighting force. The military authorities in China are sufficiently powerful to persuade the government that taking Hong Kong would be highly desirable in order to hone up the PLA. The reason why it is so important to improve the PLA is a fear of imminent invasion, for example by Vietnam, the U.S.S.R. or Taiwan. Taking Hong Kong, and perhaps Macao, first would help in gaining battle ex- perience but with minimal losses, and reveal logistic and arma- ment weaknesses in the PLA. It would also prevent Taiwan, Viet- nam etc. from using Hong Kong in the prosecution of the war. It would also eliminate the existence of Hong Kong and prevent it from appearing as a "second China" after Taiwan had been brought back into the fold.
15. Polishing Up the PLA for Attack
The same circumstance of an inadequately prepared PLA exists but China wishes to invade Taiwan and unify China thereby put- ting an end to the civil war, which still technically continues. The military taking of Hong Kong is used as a training ground with the additional benefit to China that a possible "second China” is removed at the same time.
16. The South China Aftercomer
South. China in the form of Guangdong, perhaps together with