conflict studies
The Prospects for Hong Kong
SUMMARY
No. 142
Hong Kong seems destined to remain a major international centre for several hundred years at least, regardless almost of where sovereignty rests and despite the possibility of short-term periods of decline. While Hong Kong can be described most appropriately as a place of "trade" (a term implying agreement and mutual advantage rather than conflict), the differences and disagreements that do exist cannot be disregarded.
"Hong Kong is a problem left by history", the Chinese are fond of saying. An understanding of Hong Kong's past is essential to an enlightened view of its prospects. The Colony came into being amid a clash of arms between unequally matched empires; and China's present attitudes towards Hong Kong are influenced by memories of that clash and by the perception of attendant "inequalities”. China is convinced—as it has been since the Treaty of Nanking was signed in 1842-that Hong Kong is part of China and sooner or later the territory will revert to China in the fullest of senses. From the British viewpoint the eventual transfer of sovereignty should not be an insuperable difficulty providing that a satisfactory framework for an administration is agreed and economic factors are taken into consideration.
Confrontation, if not conflict, was only too discernible in the run-up to the Chinese-British negotiations which started in Peking in early October 1982. In this study, David Lewis discusses the major current uncertainty connected with the future of Hong Kong: "What will happen in 1997 when the lease of the New Territories ends?"
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