VOLUME 8
RESTRICTED
16.16
―
that the analysis should reach the same conclusion as the proposals made by the OAG. It may be the case, for example, that the OAG may have overestimated or underestimated the amount of expenditure which it appears reasonable to support or the amount of revenue which should be raised. This will effect the amount of the grant-in-aid which will be required. It is important to reach a firm view as to what amount should be reasonably requested.
16.15.2 The estimates, together with the analysis and a recommendation on the level of grant-in-aid, should be sent to Finance Department ODM, who will consider them in consultation as necessary with the geographical Department. Once the level of a grant-in-aid has been settled, the OAG is informed, unless Finance Department ODM advises that prior reference to the Treasury is necessary (ie if there has been any significant change in circumstances). It may be necessary to consult the OAG if it is intended to make any considerable variations from the proposals which he has submitted.
16.15.3 The DT geographical Department drafts, in agreement with Finance Department ODM, the recommendation to be made to the Treasury to obtain estimates provision for the grant-in-aid. Finance Department ODM then make the actual recommendation to the Treasury and discuss it with the appropriate Treasury Department with the assistance as necessary of the desk officer of the DT geographical Department. The DT geographical Department conveys decisions reached to the OAG. UK estimates provision normally includes the reserved items (funds supplied from the UK for which the DT does not have delegated authority) but the DT may not incur expenditure on them without the specific approval of the DT geographical Department (who consult Finance Department ODM).
16.16
ESTIMATES: ANALYSIS
16.16.1 A clear and rational analysis of the estimates and proposals of a DT wishing to receive a grant-in-aid must be made by the DT geographical Department. It is not possible to lay down in precise detail the form and/or contents of the analysis. The object of the analysis is to place the proposals embodied in the estimates in an historical, as well as geographical and economic context. The analysis should in particular seek to show the extent to which the proposed grant-in-aid is a reasonable amount in all the circumstances; the likelihood of the grant becoming unnecessary in future years; or alternatively, the possibility that the grant may have to be increased in future years. The following is a general guide for the content of an analysis:
Current year's revised estimated revenue
Last year's actual revenue
Current year's revised estimated expenditure
Last year's actual expenditure (or revised estimate)
Current year's revised estimated General Revenue balance or deficit
It may also be necessary to include a statement of any proposed new posts and outstanding staff vacancies. These headings should cover both the recurrent (primarily) and the capital expenditure for the years in question, although, if necessary, the capital expenditure may be subjected to separate analysis.
October 1978
73
RESTRICTED