CONFIDENTIAL #2
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Deterrent Effect
32.
The nub of the issue is whether the
establishment of closed camps in Hong Kong will
deter people from leaving Vietnam. This is
difficult to say at this stage, but it is generally
felt that it would have some deterrent effect. If this
is correct, then the extra cost would be justified.
If not, then the change of policy may still be
justified on the following grounds :-
I
(a) The USA which is the main resettlement
country for Vietnamese refugees from
Hong Kong has been continuously
pressing for the adoption of a
"humane deterrence" to discourage more
refugees from coming out of Vietnam.
If something positive is not done in
Hong Kong to demonstrate our resolve,
the USA may be less inclined to accept
more refugees from Hong Kong in future.
At Annex C is a list showing the inflow,
outflow and population of Vietnamese refugees
in Hong Kong and the Region since 1979 and
the countries in which Hong Kong refugees have
been resettled;
(b) This policy only brings Hong Kong into
line with the rest of the Region;
but at the offence of restores sympathy
As some extent
/(c)