The major imponderable remains the possible future outflow from Vietnam. After the mass influx of some 69,000 in 1979, there were 6,800 arrivals in 1980 and 8,500 in 1981. Arrivals for the first four months of 1982, at 2,050, are similar to the figures for the first four months of 1981, whilst the flow of refugees to other countries in the region continues. Assuming arrivals no higher than the average of 1980 and 1981, it is estimated that because of reduced resettlement opportunities Hong Kong's Vietnamese refugee population may reach about 14,000 by the end of the year.
Options and Constraints
8
Against this background there is a need to consider policies which would have a significant deterrent effect on those who may be thinking of leaving Vietnam. One cannot ignore the fact that Hong Kong will be seen as an attractive prospect of permanent settlement by some. To give any credence to such an idea would be very definitely against Hong Kong's interests. A number of possible courses have been examined:
prevent refugees (if necessary including those already here) from working;
(a)
(b)
confine refugees in closed camps;
(c)
confine refugees on ships;
(a)
confine new arrivals on a rudimentary island site;
(e)
negotiate an arrangement to send refugees to a regional camp elsewhere;
(f)
encourage voluntary return to Vietnam or sailing-on elsewhere;
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(g)
(h)
repatriate refugees to Vietnam;
tow boats out of Hong Kong waters.
The advantages and disadvantages of each are set out briefly at Annex A. No single solution emerges, but initially indefinite detention of new arrivals in closed camps after a certain cut-off date, and possible repatriation to Vietnam, merit further examination.
The Closed Camp Concept
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The majority of Vietnamese refugees who have stayed in Hong Kong whilst waiting for resettlement overseas have been accommodated in open camps managed by voluntary agencies on behalf of the UNHCR. These have been located in the urban area.
CONFIDENTIAL