CODE 18,77
Mr Newton
Mr Burns
RESTRICTED
REFUGEES IN HONG KONG
}
Reference. FA 243./.1.
Hkk 24 3/1 PA
RECEIVER IN RECUSTRY
21 JAN Z
DESK OFFICER INDEX
6
PA
77
Af2111
1. Mr Boyes' teleletter of 7 January, copy attached, at last gives us a clearer picture of the Hong Kong position over 1980 and 1981. In brief, excluding presumed arrivals from China, Hong Kong ended 1981 with 12,960 refugees, as against 21,657 at end of 1980: excluding boat rescues (with flag state guarantees) the figure is 12,158 against 21,347. More interestingly, direct arrivals showed an increase from 5,908 to 6,674, or about 13%. This underlying figure had been obscured by incompatible UNIICR and HKG numbering in 1981.
2. The key figure for analysis must be the direct arrivals one, since many of those 'boat rescued' will have been heading elsewhere. Although 13% is not a startling increase, it is a rather worrying one, particularly as, taken with a slight overall drop (75,000 to 73,000), it suggests that Hong Kong's base share of arrivals may be coming up again. The fluctuation in boat rescues (up 125% but presumably a chance factor) is even sharper and taken with direct arrivals gives an increase of almost 25% on the year (from 6,788 to 8,470),
18 January 1982
'm wilkamisen HKED
ул
RESTRICTED
Must&
TCS Stitt
South East Asian Department