CONFIDENTIAL
BACKGROUND
3. Excluding people who had originally gone to China, there were 12,960 Vietnamese refugees in Hong Kong at the end of 1981. Although resettlement from Hong Kong will be larger in the first quarter of 1982 than the last of 1981, thereafter it will fall off rapidly. Sir Philip Haddon-Cave in his letter of 2 December 1981 to Mr Donald estimated that there could still be at least
9,000 there at the end of June 1982. This figure has since been
increased to 10,000 because of the projected low offtake by the
Americans after March. SEAD think these estimates slightly on
the high side.
4. Further analysis of statistics of arrivals of Vietnamese refugees in the region reveals that the number of Vietnamese refugees arriving in Hong Kong increased by 25% over 1981 against a slight drop for the region as a whole. Although the actual figures are not alarming and include a sharp rise of 900 in refugees rescued at sea and landed under flag state guarantee (and which do not therefore create a long term problem) the rise
from 6788 to 8470, is worrying.
5. This situation has led the Hong Kong Government to review its overall policy on Vietnamese refugees. The options that Hong Kong have considered are spelt out in paragraph 8 of Sir Philip's letter. They range from continuing the present humanitariant policy of giving first asylum to repatration. I had hoped to have received missions' views on them before submitting but only those of High Commission in Kuala Lumpur has arrived and the Hong Kong Government are pressing for a response.
ARGUMENT
6. Hong Kong' recognise that all the options have considerable drawbacks. The least acceptable is a public declaration of a
Even threat of repatriation, at paragraph 8(f) of the letter. if such a threat were acceptable to parliamentary and public
CONFIDENTIAL
/opinion