243/4
K FX Burns Esq
SEAD FCO
CONFIDENTIAL
ник 24311
No
Case AP 10/3
163
2 March 1982
361
See 37 38
40
THE OUTFLOW FROM VIETNAM
(42)
1. I was grateful to Dick Clift for sending me a copy of his lettek 12 of 2 February to Sir Philip Haddon-Cave about the outflow of refugees
from Vietnam, and the possibility of negotiating with the Vietnamese Government about repatriation. I commented on the prospects of repatriating these people when the question was first raised last Ryear (see my letter 243/4 of 8 Juno to Ian Ore and my teleletter 243/4
of 29 June to Kevin Burns, paragraph 5), Vice Foreign Minister Vo Dong ang told me then that Vietnamese "boat people" ohould not expect to return, and would not be welcome. I have no reason to think that Vietnam's policy on this question has changed. I would expect the Vietnamere Coverment to dianies atreight eway any suggestion, whether from Hong Kong, or from first asylum countries as a whole, that Vietnam should negotiate over the return of the "boat people".
WP
2. There has been some evolution in Vietnam's policy, to the extent that the Government now say they want to reduce the number of illegal departures, and to arrange more departures under the ODP. was the message Hoang Bich Son delivered at the special meeting on the ODP held in Geneva last October.
This
3. The Vietnamese scem on the whole to be living up to their promise to increase the number of departures under the ODP. There were 2,048 departures in December. Since then the rate of departures has fallen off (953 in January, rather fewer in February). But UNHCR say that they are now being allowed to process cases for the USA, and they expect the departure rate to pick up again now that the lunar new year is over. The Vietnamese say they are aiming for a steady departuro zate of 2,000 a month under the ODP. We doubt if they will achieve thic, owing to bureaucratic inertia and the "Saigon factor" which can be relied upon to frustrate whatever may have been decided in Hanoi. Ilovevor the ODP departure rate could well settle down at over 1,000 a month.
4. It is rather harder to tell from here how the rate of illegal departures is holding up. The Vietnamese told Rizvi (UNHCR Regional Co-ordinator) last month that they were committed to cracking down on illegal departures.. I notice that ACM Siddhi told Lord Carrington (record of talks, paragraph 10) that "the ODP had helped, and the Vietnamese appeared genuinely concerned to stem the outflow of
/boatpeople".
1
CONFIDENTIAL