CONFIDENTIAL
legally ?
16 March 1982
Shry
language
(as they seem very likely to in the next months in Hong Kong) If nerves hold in Bangkok, Hong Kong and Washington we may begin, perhaps next year, to see a cut back in numbers.
4. Behind this analysis is another judgment which we should make explicit, that, at the margin, Vietnamese campaigns against boat departures make little difference. We are not convinced that the PSS bamboo curtain is really turnable, rather than merely switchable.
5. The economic 'pull factor' you identify in your paragraph 6 is perhaps more than anything a reflection of Vietnam's difficult economic position: those with good relations with the party can become migrant workers - in Siberia, others send a son to Hong Kong. We can safely rule out any Vietnamese economic miracle to remove the need for such family income supplements. The other face of the coin is the contribution remittances from abroad must be making to Vietnam's hard currency income: there is little incentive to the regime either to block the departure of the individual or to allow his relatives to join him.
6. Our overall judgment remains therefore as in my letter of 11 August to John Ramsden: the position is still within tolerable limits, and there is very little we as a virtual bystander can (or should) be doing for the time being.
Чаич
ever,
Kevin
K FX Burns
South-East Asian Department
сс
Clift, HKGD
Mr Staples, BANGKOK
Mr Bentley, KUALA LUMPUR
Mr Hennings, SINGAPORE
Mr Brash, JAKARTA
Mr Morgan, MANILA
Sir A Parsons, UKMIS NEW YORK
Mr Marshall, UKMIS GENEVA
Sir N Henderson, WASHINGTON
Sir J Mason, CANBERRA
The Lord Moran, OTTAWA
Political Adviser, HONG KONG
Director of Immigration, HONG KONG
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CONFIDENTIAL