Mr Adams
AIR SERVICES TO CHINA
1.
CONFIDENTIAL
HKK184/1
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7824/0
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Af26
Af26f
see 14
In broad, and possibly simplistie terms, it seems to
me the questions which have to be asked, in relation to this problem are:-
2.
(a) is there a relationship between air service talks and the wider negotiations?
(b) If so, how would the Chinese react in the wider negotiations to a tough line in the air services talks? and
(c) is the possibility of the air service talks rebounding to the detriment of the wider negotiations small enough to be worth taking the risk of a tough line?
If the air services talks can be divorced from the wider negotiations then there is no reason why we should not take a tough line in them. But I take it that this divorce cannot be guaranteed. Turning then to the second question, I take it that we also cannot guarantee that the Chinese will. react to a tough line on the air services talks by calculating that we are not to be trifled with on the wider negotiations either. The result of these ratiocinations seems to me to be that there is a high risk
(? one in three?) that the Chinese would make a link between air services talks and the wider negotiations and that they would react badly in those wider negotiations to a tough British line on the air services talks.
3.
Is a one-third chance of a dust-up acceptable?
If not,
(as I imagine the case to be) then Mr Giffard's line seems to me to be one worth exploring i.e. we do not either concede the Chinese point or threaten them with denounciation of the Memorandum but rather turn the discussion to the question of how an expanded market is to be carved up between us. But I fear that the DOT will take the line that the Chinese would expect, in that case, to see any expanded traffic distributed in the same proportion as existing traffic to Peking i.e. 25 to 1!
4.
As Mr Giffard says, it will not be easy to agree a line between the FCO, the DOT and Hong Kong on this problem.
Kay
J W D Gray
Maritime, Aviation and Environment Department
24 November 1982
Mr Giffard
c.c.
Mr Clift HKGD
Mr Elliott FED Mr Sindon
CONFIDENTIAL