CONFIDENTIAL
5.5
5.5.1
5.5.2
Impact on Strategy for Major Growth
BACKGROUND : The Strategy for major growth was deve- loped in the context of the Government's search for land for housing and for industrial development through to 1996. A population target of a total NWNT population of 1.15 million by 1996 was given by Government; 680,000 of these are seen to represent "induced" growth over and above the 470,000 accounted for by existing popu- lation and trend growth in the Base Strategy. The magnitude of this growth reflects territory wide needs and does not necessarily imply that the whole of the 680,000 would have to be accommodated in the study area, certainly by 1996. For this reason a strategy was developed which could be implemented in two phases, each of approximately 340,000. Phase I can be inde- pendent of Phase II so enabling growth to be stopped altogether at 340,000 or extended to 680,000 at a much later date, possibly well into the 21st century.
The territory wide population forecast incorporated in the study was 7.2 million by 1996. That incorporated in the Chek Lap Kok study was 6.3 million. For the purposes of transport studies comparability between Chek Lap Kok and Deep Bay was essential and the popu- lation data for transport purposes has therefore been controlled to a territory wide figure of 6.3 million. This implies a slower rate of population build up in the North West than that considered at the time of work on the development potential of the North West. For the purposes of considering the land-use implications of major growth in the context of an airport, however, the 1.15 million ultimate population target has been retained.
5.5.3
ECONOMIC ASPECTS
: As set out in the comments on the Base Strategy, the location of an airport is expected to promote a favourable environment for growth in the NWNT. Reservations were attatched to the desirability of public housing-led major growth in the study area as a result of its potentially low relative attractive- ness for industrial development and private housing. However the view was expressed that a major impetus for growth could remove many of these reservations and for this reason the location of an airport in Deep Bay would be welcomed in the context of major growth as providing a considerably more robust solution to over- rall territory needs than a hoped-for industrial expan- sion following in the wake of expanding population.
5-20
CONFIDENTIAL