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over the world. General Jaruzelski had recently admitted that
industrial production had fallen by 15 per cent in 1981. If
recent reports were true it was now falling considerably more.
Then Poland would be unable either to pay the interest on their
debts, or to buy from abroad. Production would continue to fall
and ultimately people would starve. It was difficult to say
whether the Soviet Union would allow this to happen.
7.
Mr Atkins said that in the very short term the West
could only wait and see. They faced a difficult dilemma; if
they did not help Poland, economic collapse and subsequent
Soviet intervention was more likely; on the other hand it was
difficult to give assistance to a régime that ruled by force of
arms. Because of the potential for further disruption, Britain
regarded Poland as one of the most serious problems currently
facing the world. In response to a question from Mr Zhang about
the attitude of West Germany to the Polish question, Mr Atkins
said that the Western allies were not completely unanimous. The
British line was fairly pessimistic; the West Germans were more
optimistic and believed that the Poles might be able fairly
quickly to resolve their own problems. Mr Atkins hoped they
were right. He was not sure. But this subject would continue
to be discussed within NATO and the EC, Mr Zhang concluded that
the only course was to wait and see if they could do this. If
the Soviet Union were to intervene directly the situation would become very dangerous.
8.
Turning to Greece, Mr Atkins said that one of last
year's major events had been the change of government in Athens.
During his election campaign Mr Papandreou had given the
impression that he had not favoured continued Greek membership
of the EC and NATO. On his election there were fears that Greece
might seek to withdraw from both. However, although the new
Greek Government certainly had criticisms of the EC and NATO,
complete withdrawal now appeared to him unlikely. Greece seemed rather to be seeking changes from within. Britain was glad to note these encouraging indications. Mr Zhang replied that China
had also noted these developments, commenting that there were
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