CODE 18-77
SS 8/78
PA
い
H
Hreje
CONFIDENTIAL
021/1
Mr Longmire
Research Department
HEADS OF MISSION CONFERENCE: BANGKOK DECEMBER 1982
Ph17/4
Reference
cc:
Mr Donald
Mr Elliott, FED Mr Clift, HKGD Mr Burns, SEAD Miss Marsden,
Planning Staff Mr Beel, Research
Department
Mr Miller, Assess-
ments Staff
1.
Thank you for sending us a copy of your draft paper on Sino- Soviet competition for influence in South-East Asia. My comments are as follows:
(a)
(b)
Strategic Rivalry:
I suggest that you should give more detail about the extent of Soviet naval activities in the area. My view is that the Soviet naval presence is far less significant than the presence of Soviet military advisers in Vietnam, Soviet financial support for Vietnam and various political efforts which the Soviet Union has made in South East Asia.
You may find it useful to compare notes with the Assessments Staff on this point.
Diplomatic-Political:
I suggest that there should be a mention of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in this section, possibly alongside the final sentence on page 3.
2. I suggest that the paper should contain a paragraph on the recent Sino-Soviet talks. If there is some 'normalisation' of relations between the two powers, this may have some effect on competition in South East Asia, although I agree with your judgement that a major rapprochement is not on the cards in the foreseeable future. I attach a brief which we prepared a week ago You may wish to draw on this.
3. Lastly, I attach a useful minute which has been prepared by Miss Barnes of this department. I agree with her suggestion that there may be some room for rationalising the statistics annexed to the paper.
This must however depend on what material is readily
available.
Dand Howen Стоим
16 November 1982
DJ Gowan
Eastern European & Soviet Department
CONFIDENTIAL