warmes hanks to Justin Staples and his staff for their

splendid arrangements and for the warmth of their welcome.

I am glad, too, that we have such a complete turn

treim

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out of Heads of Mission from South East Asia itself we've lost

only one, I think, to his well-earned mid-tour leave, and

are delighted to welcome his Number 2, Juliet Collings.

It's good that we have both Chargé and Ambassador-desigate

en route to, Hanoi. And I'm particularly glad that we are

to have the benefit of expert opinions from quarters in

the Far East which have so powerful an influence on

and interest in what happens in the South East Asian region.

I mentioned that it's all but three years since the last

conference of this kind. One of the things I hope we can

do over the next 48 hours is to consider in what ways the

regional scene and its wider environment have changed during

that time; in the hope that this may help us in our

efforts to forecast the shape at least of the next 5 years

changes

or so. If I might suggest two that strike us very much

in London, there is on the one hand a perceptible growth

of ASEAN's collective self-confidence and on the other the

unexpected persistence of recession, which at last seems

to have caught up with even the strongest of the regional

economies. I'm not sure that our predecessors. in 1980

would have predicted the latter and I know they were none

too confident of the former.

/I have

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