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(b) Pratical Merits of British Administration
Moreover, as the Argentines show the world how poor and undeveloped we left the Falklands, it will be more difficult to persuade doubting Chinese that Hong Kong's prosperity is due to British administration. The Chinese may be encouraged in their view that Hong Kong's success is essentially due to Chinese skill and effort and that an autonomous administration would
be as competent as one imposed from London. (cf Shanghai 1945-9 after the end of the International Settlement and before the Communist take-over?)
3 These factors may therefore make it more difficult for us to reach a satisfactory settlement with the Chinese in the next year or two. Some of the public canvassing of possible medium-term solutions and transitional arrangements in the Falklands may also encourage the Chinese to attach themselves to ideas which would be unacceptable to us in Hong Kong. But the crucial effect is the likely hardening of the Chinese line - as in other contexts Deng Xiaoping and his group are likely themselves
(a) to be influenced by considerations of national pride;
(b) to be exposed to pressure from other leaders
and
if they seem to be contemplating compromise. It seems more likely than before the Falklands crisis that the negotiations (if we can even begin negotiations) will be protracted and unsatisfactory.
26 April 1982
много.
N J Cox
Far Eastern Department
!
ce: Mr Williamson, HKGD
Mr Walker, Research Department
Ar. Villinme
по бла
271
lagic that the Ft. dispute does not help
Hong Kong. I am
will himself
I do think
тогу
to
think tart
incrian
not amorniced that
Deng
very discally intacts influenced but
эт
es from rivate or
primes
D
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