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6. FOR THE WHOLE OF 1980 THE PROPORTION OF ONE-WAY PERMIT HOLDERS WAS ONLY 7.8 PER CENT. JANUARY AND FEBRUARY THIS YEAR SHOWED COMPARATIVELY SMALL RISES TO 10.8 PER CENT AND 14 PER CENT, BUT THERE WAS A SHARP INCREAES TO 51 PER CENT IN MARCH. IN SEPTEMBER IT REACHED 65 PER CENT, IN OCTOBER 72 PER CENT, AND IN THE PAST WEEK 75 PER CENT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CHINESE INTEND TO PRE-EMPT ACTION ON OUR PART BY MAINTAINING
THEIR PRESENT DAILY QUOTA OF 150 BUT GIVING THEM ALL ONE-WAY PERMITS. THEY MAY EVEN EXPECT US TO ALLOW 'GENUINE'' VISITORS
IN ADDITION.
7. 1 CONCLUDE THAT WE MUST QUICKLY TRY TO PERSUADE THE CHINESE TO REDUCE THE PROPORTION OF ONE-WAY PERMIT HOLDERS TO
50 PER CENT (75 A DAY) AND TO COOPERATE IN ARRANGEMENTS TO
SEND BACK TO CHINA THOSE OF THE REMAINING 75 WHO OVERSTAY.
ASSUME THAT I CAN COUNT ON YOUR SUPPORT IN THIS. ENFORCING
THE RETURN OF OVERSTAYERS WOULD BE BOUND TO CAUSE SOME
DIFFICULTIES WITH PUBLIC OPINION HERE BUT I THINK THEY WOULD
BE CONTAINABLE.
8. BECAUSE OF THE TREND CUTLINED IN PARA 6 ABOVE THE MATTER
HAS BECOME URGENT. PROVIDED YOU SEE NO OBJECTION THE POLITICAL ADVISER WILL SPEAK TO NCNA ON THE LINES SET OUT IN
M IF T. IT WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR THE EMBASSY IN PEKING TO
SPEAK SIMILARLY TO THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS.
9. THE AIM WOULD BE TO REACH AGREEMENT WITH THE CHINESE
IN TIME FOR THE NEW POLICY OF SENDING BACK OVERSTAYERS TO BE ANNOUNCED AND PUT INTO EFFECT HERE IN FEBRUARY 1982 (FOR
ADMINISTRATIVE REASONS WE COULD NOT MOVE EARLIER). OVER
75 PER CENT OF ALL LEGAL IMMIGRATNTS COME FROM GUANGDONG AND FUJIAN. IN THE LIGHT OF THE RESPONSE TO OUR INITIAL APPROACHES,
VISITS TO BOTH PROVINCES MIGHT BE WORTH CONSIDERING SINCE I
HAVE STANDING INVIATIONS FROM BOTH GOVERNORS, BUT ONLY IF THERE
ARE OTHER AND TO THEM MORE PALATABLE SUBJECTS TO DISCUSS AS WELL.
SEE MIFT
MACLEHOSE
LIMITED
HK & GD
FED
NEWS D PS
PS/LPS PS/PUS
MR DONALD
[THIS TELEGRAM WAS NOT ADVANCED]
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