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2
Annex A2
Annex B
Annex C
5.
As Annex A2 shows, until March 1981 settlers constituted only about 10 - 15% of the 150 a day but in that month the proportion rose sharply and has since remained at about 50 65%. About 7 legal immigrants a day return to China.
Jedda
The Consequences of a Continuation of the Present Rate of Immigration
6.
At the GSC meeting, the Financial Secretary suggested that, when approaching the Chinese, we should be armed with information on the effects on Hong Kong of the continuation of the present rate of immigration. Economic Services Branch have made a general analysis of the economic effects,
of a high level of immigration (based
primarily on the inflow 1978-80), which is reproduced as Annex B. This records how the increase in the size of the working population brought about by the direct and indirect effects of immigration brings down the growth rate of real income per head, with particularly adverse consequences for those with the lowest incomes. This in turn renders workers less ready to adapt to a changing economic situation and saps social stability.
7.
In addition, the readier availability of cheap unskilled labour lessens the incentive for industrialists to modernise production methods by installing technologically more advanced equipment, thus further retarding economic adjustment and progress.
8.
As to effects on populatation growth, the natural increase in the five years 1976 - 1980 has averaged 1.26% a year. The net balance of legal Chinese immigration and movement of Hong Kong residents has ranged from 8,900 to 55,000 over the last four years see Annex C. In 1981 this figure seems likely to be of the order of 45,000. These represent percentage increases in population ranging from 0.7 1.2% - thus substantially enhancing the natural growth rate, though falling short of doubling it.
It is a fair assumption that those who emigrate from Hong Kong have been making a greater contribution to the economy and taking less from it than those who emigrate from China with lower levels of education and skill and a substantial proportion of children (25 per cent) and elderly (10 per cent). More- over 60 per cent of the immigrants are not Cantonese speaker..
9.
·
To calculate at all precisely the effects of immigration from China on the social services would be a major exercise involving several Departments and even then
/firm conclusions....
GF 323
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