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NO (NO) GUARANTEE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DELIVER AN ALTERNATIVE
FALL-BACK FOR HONG KONG. YOUR RELATIONS WITH UNOFFICIALS MIGHT
THEREFORE SUFFER IF YOU COUNSELLED RESTRAINT BUT WERE NOT ABLE TO
OFFER ANYTHING DEFINITE IN RETURN. THEY MUST NOT GET THE
IMPRESSION THAT WE ARE STRIKING A BARGAIN WITH THEM.
5. SIR PAUL BRYAN SAW ME TODAY, ALSO AS A RESULT OF
REPRESENTATIONS BY HONG KONG UNOFFICIALS. BRYAN UNDERSTANDS THAT
GEDDES' 'BRITISH NATIONAL' AMENDMENT IS DEFECTIVE AND VERY
UNLIKELY TO BE PASSED. NEVERTHELESS HE UNDERSTANDS THAT GEDDES
WILL NOT (NOT) BE WILLING TO WITHDRAW THAT MOTION ALTHOUGH HE
MIGHT WELL INTRODUCE AN ALTERNATIVE ON THE LINES OF PARAGRAPH 3(B)
OF YOUR TELNO 912 IF IT IS DEFEATED. I UNDERSTAND THAT BRYAN HAS
SENT A MESSAGE TO YOU THROUGH THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OFFICE
REPORTING HIS CONVERSATION. I SUGGEST THAT YOU PASS ON HIS
PERSONAL ADVICE TO THEM NOT (NOT) TO SUPPORT THE PRESENT GEDDES
AMENDMENT, IF NECESSARY MAKING CLEAR THAT THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT
THERE IS ANY GUARANTEE OF AN ALTERNATIVE FALL-BACK.
6. THEREAFTER WE MUST, I THINK, LET MATTERS TAKE THEIR COURSE.
IF THE HOME SECRETARY WERE READY TO RECONSIDER HIS POSITION ON
A FALL-BACK, THE GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT BE PREPARED TO TAKE A
DECISION ON THIS UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE THE THIRD READING IN THE
LORDS ON 20 OCTOBER, AND WOULD PROBABLY ONLY DO SO IF THE CHANCES
OF DEFEATING THE GIBRALTAR AMENDMENT IN THE COMMONS WERE VERY
SLIM. IN THESE CIRCUMSTANS AND GIVEN SIR P BRYAN'S LATEST
INFORMATION, I WOULD BE AGAINST ANY PRESSURE ON LORD GEDDES TO
SHIFT HIS STAND.
7. INCIDENTALLY, I SHOULD MAKE CLEAR THAT WE ARE UNLIKELY TO
ACHIEVE AN ALTERNATIVE 'BRITISH HONG KONG CITIZEN' WORDING BY
ADMINISTRATIVE MEANS ALONE. LEGAL ADVICE IS THAT THIS WOULD
REQUIRE AMENDMENTS TO THE BILL.
CARRINGTON
NNNN
DISTRIBUTIONM
LIMITED
HKGD
NTD
PS
PS/LPS
PS/LORD TREFGARNE
PS/PUS
MR DONALD
MR ADAMS
COPIES TO
MR DR FORD HK GOVT OFFICE
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CONFIDENTIAL