in Hong Kong are now overwhelmingly (98%) ethnic Vietnamese,
and the majority (77%) come from South Vietnam. They are now mostly
farmers and fishermen with relatively little education.
Present trends and conclusions
10.
Why do refugees continue to leave Vietnam in large numbers ?
(Hong Kong's arrivals so far this year, at 7,600, already exceed
arrivals for the whole of 1980). The principal reason would seem
to be the very difficult political and economic circumstances in
Vietnam, which result from the maintenance of the economy on a war-
footing in order to sustain the army of occupation in Cambodia and
large forces on the Sino-Vietnam border. This, and the imposition by
the North upon the South of a largely unworkable political and economic
system, seem to provide sufficiently strong reasons for the refugees
to brave the considerable (and known) risks of the journey. They set
out in small boats which are overloaded and ill-suited to a lengthy
sea crossing particularly since the time of year when the winds are
A
favourable for the journey to Hong Kong is also the typhoon season.
In addition to natural hazards, a number of refugees fall into the hands
of Thai pirates with horrifying consequences. We know that news of
these dangers filters back to Vietnam, since refugees can communicate
by letter, telegram and even telephone with their friends and relatives
there. There seems little sign that the Vietnamese Government is
contemplating any general change of policy which would alleviate
conditions in Vietnam and reduce the pressure to leave. The prospects
are therefore for a continuing exodus; although arrivals in Hong Kong
are likely to be fewer during the winter months when the winds are
unfavourable.
/11.