CONFIDENTIAL
ANNEX (2)
VIETNAMES REFUGEES IN HONG KONG
Projection of Position 1st January to 31st March 1982
(1) Estimated opening balance on 1st January 1982: (2) Add estimated arrivals:
12,600
Jan
Feb
Mar
300
300
900
(3) Add births from existing refugee populations:
@ 80 p.m.
(4) Deduct planned DEPARTURES under programmes:
Others (mostly
Jan
Feb
US
2,500 80 50 ?
1,925 80 50 ?
Can. Aus. UK Fr.
ship rescues)
Total
20
150
2800
20
50
2125
Mar
950 80
50
?
20
50
1150
Estimated Balance at 31st March 1982
+
1,500
+
240
14,340
6,075
8,265
Say:
8,300
(5) Estimated arrivals
on basis of comparable 1980 and 1981 figures from 1st April to 31st June 1982
:
3,000
11,300
(6) Estimated departures (at this stage it is
impossible to forecast likely departures in the second quarter of 1982)
But balance at 30th June 1982 could
be, at least, say:
CONFIDENTIAL
?
9,000