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8.
to us,
(d) at best, therefore, we shall have over 8,000
refugees here on 1st April 1982 - nearly three years after Geneva with very little chance indeed of dispersing them (see Annex (2)) and the inflow could well continue indefinitely.
So, we have been looking anxiously at the options open
viz:
(a) carry on as before, i.e. continue to provide.
first asylum under the present humane conditions and in accordance with the Geneva agreement in the hope that:
(i) the outflow from Vietnam may stop; or
(ii) the resettlement countries may increase
their quotas or both.
Neither seems likely.
(b) seek, against the trend, to obtain larger quotas from existing resettlement countries and explore possible new destina- tions. The prospects are not promising. Apart from the Americans, the Canadian quota for next year will probably give Hong Kong an off-take of around 80 per month (half the 1981 monthly off-take). The indications from Australia are similar, and it seems clear that we cannot count on a new UK quota. (Incidentally, has there yet been any progress on Operation Trickle: see correspondence resting with Bim Davies' letter of 9th
October to Dick Clift?)(88)
(c) seek new outlets e.g. in Belize or Surinam. At best this would yield a very small number of resettlement places. The destinations are unlikely to appeal to the refugees, and someone would have to pay;
(d) accept the existing hard core of difficult cases
for resettlement in Hong Kong. This might be acceptable to public opinion in Hong Kong as a last resort, but only if the outflow from Vietnam were to stop and we could be sure that it would not restart, and all other resettlement avenues had been finally closed. Any earlier move in this direction would create a pull factor, not least among the 250,000 Vietnamese resettled in China of whom 10,000 have already tried to come to Hong Kong. In any event resettlement in Hong Kong must be viewed against decisions taken on the question of immigration from China and we shall also be asked why have we been left with the dross when, in any case, we have resettled 14,000 from Indo-China in Hong Kong in the period 1975-1981;
(e) in theory we could embark on a policy of "humane
deterrence". This is what the Americans seem to want us to do, although they have no very clear idea of what such a policy might mean in practice.
The
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/Thais.....