CODE 18,77
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243/2
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Reference......
Mr Williamson, HKGD
CONFIDENTIAL
LAST PAPER
-HIK 243/2
VIETNAMESE REFUGEES IN HONG KONG
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сче
12/1/22 AF 1211
1.
I have taken a quick look at Hong Kong's refugee position in the light of the Chief Secretary's letter of 2 December.
118 2. You will not be surprised to hear that I find Hong Kong's estimates in Annex (2) more pessimistic that the statistics justify. To start at the top, their carry over estimate of 12,600 seems likely to be several hundred too high. (Line (i)). Their estimated arrivals in the first quarter of 1982 also seemed to me high, by around 600 even on a straight average of 1980 and 1981 figures (2).
The result
is a breakdown at 31 March which could well be 1000 high- to be generous say 7,500 rather than 8,300.
3. Estimates of arrivals for the second quarter are obviously speculative. The equivalent quarter's totals (UNHCR figures) are in fact 4,300 (1980) and 2,450 (1981) but these are distorted by ex-China arrivals. Boat rescues (i.e. guaranteed on arrival) now make up a fifth to a quarter of arrivals in Hong Kong. On present trends I see no justification for an estimate much in excess of 2000 new arrivals. My figure for (5) would therefore be 9,500 rather than 11,300.
4. All of which leads me to a 30 June 1982 estimated balance of around 7,000, of whom perhaps 500 will have been guaranteed on landing.
5. I also find Hong Kong's figures (in paragraph 2 of their letter) difficult to square with UNHCR's figures. Both `sets of Hong Kong figures imply an increasing flow in their
direction from Vietnam, which is as far as I am aware is simply untrue. I attach a draft teleletter to Hong Kong, and would be grateful for any comments on it
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or on the above.
23 December 1981
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TCS Stitt
South East Asian Department
Please dotated it if you we contut,
CONFIDENTIAL
Juss
74.12