see (13
σ
GR 385
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG 200726Z FEB
CONFIDENTIAL
TO PRIORITY FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE TELEGRAM NUMBER 173 OF 20 FEBRUARY, 1981 INFO HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OFFICE LONDON.
TOP/COP
HKR 243/2
AUSYID I RAČNICY NO. 51
M IP T: VIETNAMESE REFUGEE RESETTLEMENT - U.K. PROGRAMME~
21 FEB 1981
*SY OPACER
INDEX
Nolms
1. AT PRESENT THERE ARE SOME 20,000 REFUGEES IN HONG KONG WAITING” FOR RESETTLEMENT. IN ADDITION WE HAVE SOME 2,500 VIETNAMESE WHO WERE SETTLED IN CHINA AND ARE NOW AWAITING REPATRIATION THERE HAVING COME ILLEGALLY.
2. OF THE U.K. QUOTA OF 11,000 PLACES, 9,515 HAVE ALREADY GONE AND TAKEN UP FOR AND A FURTHER 500 PLACES HAVE BEEN EARMARKED SHIP RESCUES IN THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BALANCE OF JUST UNDER 1,000 STILL TO GO. RECENTLY THE U.K. MONTHLY RESETTLEMENT RATE WAS 400, ALTHOUGH IT DROPPED TO 280 IN JANUARY. THE ESTIMATE FOR FEBRUARY IS 400. WE THEREFORE EXPECT THE U.K. QUOTE TO BE FILLED BY ABOUT THE END OF APRIL.
3. ON THE BASIS OF THE KNOWN QUOTAS FOR THE U.S., WHO TAKE ABOUT 50 PER CENT OF RESETTLED REFUGEES (1,500 PER MONTH), CANADA WHO TAKE 18 PER CENT AND INCLUDING THE OFFTAKE TO OTHER COUNTRIES, WE ESTIMATE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 15,000 AND 16,000 REFUGEES HERE AT 1 APRIL. THIS ALLOWS FOR 600 TO ARRIVE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN BUT DOES NOT TAKE ACCOUNT OF A DEPRESSING TREND WHICH HAS BECOME APPARENT SINCE CHRISTMAS OF A SLOWER RATE OF DEPARTURE. THEREAFTER IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE LIKELY POSSIBLE ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES. HOWEVER, BARRING UNFORESEEN EVENTS LIKE A NEW FLOOD OF ORGANISED DEPARTURES FROM VIETNAM, THE REFUGEE POPULATION SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT 12,000 BY MID-YEAR.
4. THIS MEANS THAT BY MID-YEAR WE WILL STILL BE A GOOD WAY SHORT OF CLEARING THE BACKLONG. FURTHERMORE, BEFORE THAT TIME WE ARE LIKELY TO BE RUNNING INTO DIFFICULTIES ABOUT QUOTAS FROM COUNTRIES OTHER THAN THE U.K. THE AUSTRALIAN QUOTA OF 1,100 RUNS OUT IN JUNE. THE CANADIAN ALLOCATION OF 2,500 FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR IS SUBJECT TO PERIODIC REVIEW WHICH THEY HAVE SAID WILL TAKE ACCOUNT OF THE THE U.K. ATTITUDE. BUT THE THE MAIN POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS THE AMERICANS. THEY HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THAT, BECAUSE OF CONGRESSIONAL PRESSURE, THEY CANNOT MAINTAIN A PROGRAMME WHICH APPEARS TO BE TAKING AN UNDUE PROPORTION OF THE TOTAL. IN MAKING THIS ASSESSMENT THEY HAVE ALSO MADE IT CLEAR THAT THEY WILL PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHAT IS DONE BY THE
U.K.
THEY HAVE ALREADY EXPRESSED SERIOUS CONCERN THAT THEIR PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL IS INCREASING AS OTHER PROGRAMMES TAIL OFF. THE ABSENCE OF A FURTHER U.K. QUOTA COULD THEREFORE LEAD TO A CUT IN THE U.S. RESETTLEMENT PROGRAMME. THAT WOULD HAVE VERY SERIOUS CONSEQUENES FOR US.
CONFIDENTIAL
; 5.
PA
ALGISTRY
ction Taken
10 P10/3
See/14
38
noted cas 2412
Во
3 March MAS