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(iii) Effect. At best temporary.
DSR 11C
Such encouragement
and assurances would cause some local Chinese investors
to maintain investments.
Little effect on foreign
investors unless coupled with action on land leases.
Not sufficient to halt a serious slide of confidence for
long, if at all, because unsupported by either firm and
'bankable' description of conditions under Chinese law,
or assurance of continuance of British jurisdiction.
B) Declaration by the Chinese that, because treaties unequal
1997 irrelevant; Hong Kong would revert to China when the
time was ripe, with the clear understanding that British
administration would continue beyond 1997
C)
More
Becomes
(i) Likelihood. If as a formal statement a slight but
significant change in present Chinese position.
difficult than (A) for Chinese however as it implies
continuing British administration beyond 1997.
progressively more difficult for them the more that is
said about time not being ripe for many years to come.
(ii) Problems for HMG. None: the Chinese already claim
sovereignty. A statement from them that the lease should
be ignored would however open the way for us to take
legal measures that would align the practical reality
in Hong Kong with Chinese stated views.
(iii) Effect. Would be too vague to have significant
effect, even if coupled with (A) above, unless coupled
with agreement to action by HMG to take continuing
powers of administration beyond 1997.
Joint or parallel statements by Chinese and HMG that treaties no longer applicatble; Hong Kong Chinese territory temporarily under British administration but this would continue beyond 1997
(i) Likelihood. Not easy, as it requires public approval by the Chinese of British administration.
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