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she should be aware of the Hong Kong angle to this visit. There would
be expectations there that she will be seeking a solution to the
problem of the future of Hong Kong. There is considerable risk that
the Chinese would not be prepared to add to their earlier general
This would bring disillusionment in Hong Kong and itself
assurances.
affect confidence.
11. Sovereignty.
However, if the Chinese are prepared during the
visit or later on to have talks on Hong Kong, it is likely that one
major concession they would ask for would be British acknowledgement
of Chinese sovereignty over the Territory. There are obvious political
difficulties, including implications for other Dependent Territories,
notably the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar.
12. In the case of the Falkland Islands, a lease-back in return for
acknowledgement of Argentine sovereignty has already been canvassed.
On Gibraltar, the Spaniards have so far been demanding little more than
British acknowledgement of their sovereignty although they would see
the next step as autonomy under the Spanish Constitution. The whole
idea is anathema to the vast majority of Gibraltarians, who rely on
the British pledge that they will not pass under the sovereignty of
another State against their freely and democratically expressed wishes.
Any move over Hong Kong sovereignty would be watched carefully by
the Spanish Government and could thus further complicate HMG's
already tricky task in handling negotiations with them.
There are very
13. These problems should, however, be containable.
important differences between the situation in Hong Kong and Gibraltar.
In the first place, there is no question of avoiding change of some
sort in 1997 as regards the New Territories. Moreover, there is no
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