Total
1981
1, 211
1,211
1982
778
778
1983
573
573
1984
217
531
578
1985
391
785
1, 176
1981-85
608
3,878
4,486
1986
326
1,237
1987
1, 563
276
1,337
1988
1, 613
332
1,079
1,411
1989
581
1, 481
2,062
1990
818
1, 919
2,737
1986-90
2,333
7,053
9,386
Post 1990
4,857
16,669
21, 526
Total
7,798
27,600
35, 398
43
Thus, if Tin Shui Wai went ahead now as proposed by the developers and given the commitments listed in paragraph 41 above, total capital expenditure over the next 6 years could be in excess of $21 billion per annum at 1980 prices or some 34% higher than expected in 1981-82. It is difficult to see how expenditures of this magnitude could fail to lead to a significant draining of resources from the manufacturing sector and from export-oriented tertiary services to the detriment of economic growth.
44
From the broad brush analysis given above it is apparent that over at least the next six to eight years there will be heavy demands on both overall economic resources and the construction industry, arising mainly from very large projected increases in public sector capital expenditure, coupled with the need to give priority to such major projects as a replacement airport, new container port facilities, the MTR Island Line and a number of major road projects.
G.S. 166
CONFIDENTIAL **